[Path to Dream_FX_8 Currencies_Market Environment Awareness & Memo_20230910]

Sunday, September 10.

Good morning.

The South Kanto region is enjoying clear weather after the typhoon.
In the evening, there is a possibility of thunderstorm activity, so please be careful.
　
We should be cautious when going out.

Now, regarding the charts,
the daily highs of USD/JPY and CHF/JPY
are late when viewed in a typical cycle,
so I suspect the HPC possibility.
　
Since both are in a yen-weakening trend,
at the time the daily closes,
there is a high likelihood that they will not fall sharply and may rise again.
likely condition is high.

　　
Now, let’s verify.
This is the number of days after the daily confirmation.


【EUR/USD】
Monthly chart – 13th
Weekly chart – 2nd cycle, 26th/19
HPC – 2nd cycle, 73rd/35
4HC – 6th cycle, 62nd/18LT

This is how I interpret it.

On the daily chart, it is a timing where a close is acceptable.
If it closes, the weekly chart will also close,
and initially I expect an up move,
but because the euro is weaker than the dollar,
it seems to show strength of the base currency.
　
On the daily chart, a break of the starting point is possible,
if it falls below 1.0634, there might be a sharp rise?
Or,
if it breaks below 1.0515, which is the weekly starting point,
the monthly cycle may be at risk of starting a breakdown.
　
We are at a very important period.
　
 
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20230910_EUR/USD Market Environment Video Commentary
https://youtu.be/77J9JObmSUw
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【EUR/JPY】
Monthly chart – 9th
Weekly chart – 2nd cycle, 7th/6
Daily chart – 1st cycle, 31st/24
4HC – 3rd cycle, 74th/32 or
4HC – 4th cycle, 6th/5

This is how I interpret it.

On the daily chart, the end is near,
will it close on 4HC-4?
or is there a 5th?
This is the development that concerns me.

Technically,
the week of September 11 should be viewed with a downward bias.


【USD/JPY】
Monthly chart – 9th
Weekly chart – 1st cycle, 34th/34
or
Weekly chart – 2nd cycle, 9th/9
Daily chart – 1st or 4th, 41st/40
4HC – 4th cycle, 43rd/23

This is how I interpret it.

The premise is that the dollar is strong.
Due to policy rates,
the Fed signals another rate hike,
and the BoJ is reluctant to raise rates,
so the yen continues to weaken.
　
Technically, the possibility of new highs is high again,
and even if a yen intervention occurs,
it would only be time-buying, in my view.

In the short term there might be a yen appreciation,
but an intervention is still just a bomb.

The big trend remains upward, but
I want to be careful about the bomb.
　

【GBP/JPY】
Monthly chart – 9th
Weekly chart – 2nd cycle, 7th/5
Daily chart – 1st cycle, 31st/18
4HC – 4th cycle, 7th/6

This is how I interpret it.

On Wednesday, September 6,
Bank of England Governor Bailey stated that rate hikes should stop.

　
Since then, daily candles have shown bearish signs.
　
On Friday the 8th, profit-taking contributed to a long lower wick (a doji-like line) indicating confusion.

　
On the daily cycle, it is a close timing, so a downward bias is strong, but

since 4HC has just started,
the view is a temporary rise followed by a decline.


【AUD/JPY】
Monthly chart – 7th
Weekly chart – 1st cycle, 25th/14
Daily chart – 3rd cycle, 31st/2
4HC – 3rd cycle, 6th/5

This is how I interpret it.

In the latter half of the weekly and daily charts,
the 4HC-3 LT (Left Translation) is expected.
　
Since the RBA generally does not implement negative rates,
it seems the economy is characterized by high inflation.
　
“Enough, come out from the clouds already!”
This is the rallying cry I want to continue.
　
　
【NZD/JPY】
Monthly chart – 7th
Weekly chart – 1st cycle, 25th/16
Daily chart – 3rd cycle, 31st/3
4HC – 3rd cycle, 22nd/21

This is how I interpret it.

The daily trend line appears to be functioning, but, like AUD/JPY, it remains within the cloud.

　
The Oceania region is heavily influenced by China,
and given that China's real estate sector is affected,
it may be due for a decline soon.
　
The daily chart is near the end,
and since it is 4HC-3,
I would like to expect LT (Left Translation).


【CHF/JPY】
Monthly chart – 9th
Weekly chart – 2nd cycle, 9th/8
Daily chart – 1st cycle, 43rd/36
4HC – 4th cycle, 33rd/14

This is how I interpret it.

This is a safe-haven currency, CHF.
On the daily cycle, a top is at the 36th candle,
therefore HPC is suspected.
　
Since HPC is rare for a single currency
I consider the possibility that USD/JPY is involved.
　
Even if there is no upside new highs,
a slow decline may bottom out within this week?

I see it that way.
　
　
【CAD/JPY】
Monthly chart – 7th
Weekly chart – 1st cycle, 25th/15
Daily chart – 3rd cycle, 31st/28
4HC – 4th cycle, 6th/5

This is how I interpret it.

The daily top was updated last week, and there seems to be upside risk remaining.

　
If higher highs occur in the future,
CAD/JPY might also be HPC?
and this is a situation that makes me doubt.
　
Since 4HC has just started,
the upside strength is strong,
so I find it questionable.
　

 
****************************
20230910_EUR/USD Market Environment Video Commentary
https://youtu.be/77J9JObmSUw
*****************************


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DJI: Plus 75.86 dollars
WTI: 86.64 dollars

　
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Now, let’s have fun trading this week as well.
　
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Nobitorei