Earn in a genuine market with trend-following; earn in a fake market with contrarian trading
The ideal market flow is
a trending market → a ranging market → a trending market
in that order, but
in reality
there is no concept of a ranging market
there is a ranging market, but
that is a constructed concept
in terms of true market positioning
I would call it a “noisy market.”
Look at past markets
A market that is neither trending nor ranging, isn’t there?
In that case, how would you think about the market?
Would you classify it as neither a trending market nor a ranging market?
If you did so, market observations would become even more complicated
Everyone says, “Simple is best,”
and that is true as well—one should frame it as a “trending market versus noisy market.”
By doing so
when a trending market inevitably arrives
you can switch to thinking, “The real market has arrived.”
If there were a concept of a ranging market
the thought, “Could this be returning…?” might creep in
To eliminate that possibility
I believe it is absolutely better to think of the market as a trending market and a noisy market.
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