Let's abandon techno-centrism and uphold fundamentalism.

Technical superiority cannot respond to market fluctuations

or rather, it cannot cope with volatility

In the first place

you can't honestly admit the losses from curve fitting

because you are a technical supremacist

you can't acknowledge market accidents or one-way market trends

the market environment itself is

the essence of the market

as a technical supremacist

the chart shapes become a given

put simply

you want to visualize everything, convert everything into diagrams

but that way of thinking is something you’ve been told and taught over and over, which is why it’s like this

that’s why it’s poor in quality

the people who taught it didn’t actually increase (amount)

and in the end, to keep increasing capital you have to become a fundamentalist

well, to be precise

something like technical 3: fundamental 7

I think the ratio is like that

Sure, technical analysis is necessary

but that is just an expression that vaguely represents Dow Theory or support/resistance in a trading outlook

the essence is ambiguity

because you don’t know when a trend will appear

or when it will revert

situations like that will continue, you know

then after all, you should lean toward fundamentals

and at the same time, you must elevate technicals with less bias

no matter how you restrict trend-following entry points

the win rate may change, but the profit doesn’t

that is only because the market conditions forced it to be so

in other words, delaying or accelerating the appearance of trend-following signals “doesn’t change”

rather, it often results in a lower profit margin

the actual trend market arises in

one week after, two weeks after, three weeks after, four weeks after, or two months later

that is how it is

in other words, if you trade assuming the actual trend market exists,

you end up trading on the 4-hour or 1-hour chart

so that’s why the 4-hour chart reversal logic

can actually increase your gains relatively stably, you know, like MA cross

ultimately every logic

has the problem that

“faster signals lead to more losses”

“slower signals lower the profit rate”

considering all that

technical supremacism would be inferior to 4-hour logic

therefore you need to adapt to fundamentals

the 4-hour logic signals are late

the 15-minute logic signals are early

and yet

even the 4-hour logic can suffer drawdowns

if the so-called trend market really doesn’t come

the 15-minute logic will generate more signals, but

it will also not yield profits

(here, you could choose to aim for 3x profit with 1:3,

but continuing 1:3 will eventually dilute by capital increases

profits will shrink relative to losses)

From these observations

a technically supremacist approach has greater drawbacks

that’s why the idea is to adopt more fundamentalism

I believe that is why Dow Theory and support/resistance exist

Fundamentally, most technical analysis

is meaningless when viewed through this lens

because it’s only about whether you display signals late or early

both late and early display can lead to negative chains of profitability or other harms

With that in mind, it’s a discussion about needing to observe market movements from a fundamental perspective

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