An example of an exchange that practically captures a trade strategy regarding discretionary trading

Discretionary trading = averaging-down trading cannot

stop losses from expanding in a way that prevents being halted by stop losses

even if 10 yen moves occur within a minute, you cannot stop it, and you cannot exit the loss afterward

Discretionary trading tends to be profitable, but

because the maintenance margin changes extremely, it keeps a high level of risk

If you start with 200,000

and aim for a 5x profit rate = about 0.5% profit

and since you divide this into four parts, 2% profit

you can make a profit in a week

Whatever happens, just follow the trend

Make additional trades in the trend

Aim for 5x profitability

Set stop losses at the most recent bottom

With averaging-down trading, you eventually reach a path to a loss cut

Only when stop trades push the profit rate to 5x or more does profit remain

Feeling calm and secure

After that, the maintenance margin can rise to around 1800%, which is discretionary = averaging-down trading

Discretionary cannot withstand the burden of losses

Stop losses were created to mitigate that handicap trading

Even if it is 5% in one week, in one year it becomes tenfold

Stop losses are

contrarian-following and trend-following

Reserved trades every 12 hours

Oto-ten trading

is about all that exists

There are hardly any elements that generate profit other than oto-ten

Is trend following important?

The trades you do are

averaging-down contrarian stop losses

Usually that yields profit

Conversely, doing the opposite trend-following only increases losses unnecessarily

Here

Contrarian-following and trend-following both just increase losses

When you try to capture timing in the market, both will incur losses

Even if you catch both, timing will slip

Both carry the risk of expanding losses, and you should not add trades in a trending market

Trying to shift to trend-following at the right timing

and failing spectacularly, continuing trend-following until a trend appears

giving up after it’s impossible and then losing again—these are common patterns

Moreover, if you try to do only trend-following

you will end up unable to recover losses in a range market

Ultimately losses just keep increasing

At best, it takes about a month to recover

If you miss that recovery period, performance will continue to decline

Therefore, ultimately there is only oto-ten trading

Even reserved 12-hour trades come down to timing

Profit expansion is nothing but oto-ten trading

Everything besides this perspective of “oto-ten trading” is fiction

There are places you cannot confront with contrarian-oto-ten

It is precisely in such markets that you must confront them

Therefore you are left with “oto-ten trend-following trading”

Recompressing candles and regular candles

In mid-term candle parameters, the re-compressed candle chart uses a ceiling for how far the trend will go

In short-term candle parameters, the regular candle chart does not consider how far the trend will go

On a short-term basis, for long-term candles

It is easier to grasp timing relative to the trend

Trends start from the long-term candles

If you want to pursue profit

You must faithfully follow the trend on 30-minute and 1-hour charts

In other words, you can only grasp this flow by combining work and part-time effort

If you stumble once

You cannot do stop-loss trading

Because a lineage of losses

A proper market must appear for trend-following

And at that time, you must be able to perform proper market analysis

Trends often end without you finishing, making it hard to realize profits

So profit is hard to grasp

On the 1-hour chart

Analysis with short-term parameters reveals it

Only MA-leading is meaningless

Ultimately, when considering oto-ten,

It is nothing but trend-otosen

The idea of contrarian-following oto-ten is good

But leaving contrarian-following as-is has no meaning

That is the point

For forecasting trends

The only conclusion is to use technicals for trend inference

Oto-ten is also oto-ten

If you trade only with oto-ten signals,

losses along the way become severe

Also, with oto-ten, markets that shake off stop losses come

Neither is easily treated as a clear signal like an oto-ten signal

Rather, watch the market with trend signals rather than trend indicators

There is no other method

Oto-ten does not guarantee victory; what matters is that it seems winnable

In practice, only “trend-following signals that land a stop loss wins”

In other words, in terms of a hindsight theory,

They are just going after the first move

This is the reverse pattern of contrarian averaging-down

In contrarian averaging-down, you should keep making profits

Trend-following stop losses are only “one shot”

Beyond that, it’s “no different from averaging-down” and often doesn’t move with the trend

Both carry risk and you should not add trades in a trending market

Because only that market yielded profits, if no trend appears you end up in a dried-up state, meaning you keep losing as you trade

If you look at the number of losses, it becomes clear

If you keep trend-following and realize profits discretionary, you end up in a pattern of huge losses in range markets

And since you trade with discretion, even if a trend market appears you cannot extend profits

If profits look good but the trend ends, you fall to stop losses

Also, additional trend-following trades

Even if the trend succeeds, it often turns back

Each time you lose, so essentially the contrarian averaging-down mechanism is the same

The more it retreats, the more losses accumulate, and when the trend fails you simply incur losses

From the start, the only correct path is “oto-ten 1-shot trend-following”

What confuses people is labeling it as contrarian 1-shot

That is the current state of stop-loss trading

Except for the one-shot, markets are predetermined

In effect, it becomes nearly the same theory as discretionary contrarian trading

Because

Stop losses

In a strong trend market, you cannot trade according to the trend

Also, when a trend fails and stop losses occur

Your market view also goes awry, making profits impossible

Similarly, one-shot contrarian also has a similar logic

One-shot trend-following market becomes quite fearful

However, one-shot oto-ten trend-following is only doing trend-following in a tentative way

Just observe

Also, from a hedging perspective it becomes a safe trade

Talent is not something extraordinary

This lies in the profit-changing power of trend-following in one word

Often people say, like the Turtle method,

That it is because someone broke the rules

But that is completely different

In reality, it lies in

the part of increasing profits

the number of trades

Moreover, using automated trading generally does not improve performance

That is why

there is meaning in combining averaging-down with oto-ten trading

A market that goes back

A market that does not return

The market is just this much

And

Markets where oto-ten works

Markets where it does not

That is all

These loops are the point

No matter how much you trade, if you cannot profit from trading

you will stop making profits thereafter

The extension of a negative spiral is all you get

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