Contrarian trading is due to front-running fear of following trends

S trend following phobia arises when you were taught that counter-trend is initially effective

There exists a phenomenon that occurs after being taught by seminar sellers

In other words, it is a belief transmitted from seminar sellers

Because trend following becomes ultimately effective

The ultimately effective part is mechanistically extremely vague

Counter-trend is effective; you think to aim with counter-trend

Counter-trend can be effective and can also be the correct judgment as trend following

If you keep counter-trending, when price returns you it will function as a trend-following signal

It often captures the head and body of the trend following

However, when markets where trend following is strong appear

Counter-trend is merely believing a signal to move in the opposite direction

As a bias, the load is that “humans cannot endure it”

Therefore even in markets where trend following is strong, you simply keep applying counter-trend

So there is no choice but to overcome something like trend-following phobia

Trend-following also requires time to become effective

And it is only a matter of whether you can endure the rather plain work until then

Trend following is quite weak in ordinary markets

If you take profits mid-way with trend following you will lose

Therefore it is better to enter with a reserved-trade for trend-following

Basically it is just trend-following plus leaving it alone

A trade that only aims when trend-following succeeds

Because this can also be done with automated trading

The necessity of discretion is questionable

But that does not mean

FX cannot be traded like poker

Unless it is a zero-cut account-transfer style trade, it is not possible

Due to trend-following phobia you end up counter-trending

In strong trend markets you end up counter-trending

The ensuing philosophy can be a shock to the point of potentially becoming gambling addiction

Ultimately, trend-following becomes the theory

Counter-trend splits trade size into parts

Trend-following does not split trade size

To put it, the proportional idea

If counter-trend is viewed from win-rate and stability

Trend-following is viewed from profit and instability

Trend-following phobia stems from an unstable viewpoint

If you look at past markets you’ll understand

If in past markets there was no strong trend-following market

You would think counter-trend is effective, and start giving reasons that counter-trend has weaknesses but is effective

From the start you have no choice but to do trend-following

Whether trend-following succeeds is also luck

If you are stopped out, even if the market shifts to a strong trend, the result is a loss

Even if market strengths are drawn out, if you were losing it’s meaningless

But with counter-trend you just average down, so

There is no dragging along

However, when considered with the concept of trend-following phobia

It means a single-shot trade is better than averaging in

In zero-cut capital-shift trading, a single shot plus high risk is the way to trade

If profits occur, that is strong

From the perspective of the money management, the stable view

That is not profit

Counter-trend averaging is the stable view and the profit view

Therefore you can enter the market anytime

So together with trend-following phobia

Because you want to make profits, you misinterpret as “it doesn't suit me”

But in reality trend-following suits you more and you can earn more with trend-following

This is what seminar sellers are misleading you about

Trend-following is

Like you’re doing reserved trend-following and then leaving it alone

A single-shot implies “taking less risk” in terms of meaning

The more experiences you have with counter-trend averaging winning in terms of win-rate and stability

the more you develop allergies or fear toward trend-following

So what should be done to make yourself able to perform “trend-following” and “leave it alone”

The latent risk and latent return

Are different between counter-trend and trend-following

Averaging and single-shot are the same

There are more latent returns in counter-trend averaging

There are larger latent risks in counter-trend averaging

There are larger latent risks in trend-following

There are larger latent returns in trend-following

The correct answer is to trade only for latent returns

That naturally leads to a logic of either trend-following leaving it alone or trend-following leaning on it

※ For those who want to keep earning in FX, go here ↓