How to Keep Up with Trends

I will display 4-hour charts

I will display the 30-period and 60-period moving averages

We consider MA crossovers as the trend; we will follow the trend with the 60 MA

We will confirm that a trending market appears

We will confirm that the trend is reversing in the opposite direction

As part of that confirmation, we will check the trendlines supporting and resisting

After that, when the trendline breaks, a flag forms, so we enter in the direction of the trend

This entry timing is very effective

The reason is

1) a trending market is actually appearing

2) traders are turning to see a trend reversal

3) but it retraces, so they rush to reverse-trade

4) afterwards the trend resumes (the market has priced in a reversal by large players or something)

That's the situation

There is a proverb that says the market is a trap for fools

In a trending market, a flag break is a method that reliably yields profits

On timeframes, it is easy to confirm on the 1-hour or 4-hour chart

“Easy to confirm” because the moment of confirmation comes from the logic of the trend re-break

That moment is on the longer timeframes

Therefore, the 1-hour or 4-hour timeframes are easier to confirm

In technical analysis, people joke that certain strategies are only for ○○ hours or only for ○○ minutes, but

Technical analysis is ultimately about post-hoc optimization

The markets considered in post-hoc optimization for testing are

Recent markets, and as post-hoc theory it is valid, but

In actual markets it cannot be used; technical analysis itself can freely change its structure later

In actual trading, entry and the analytical test entry on past markets are entirely different

A logic that can be used in the same way as past markets

Is not technical analysis itself, but the main chart chart

We make the logic out of chart interactions; only then does analysis become valid

Understand that analysis in technical analysis is basically post-hoc analysis on past markets

What actually functions and is recognized as functioning is

The main chart—the price range, support and resistance

That is why there is validity in re-breaking the trend in a trending market

If you want to target only the most effective places in the market

These ideas are extremely important

Because markets move in price ranges

If you consider that, you will realize that trend flag breaks are meaningful in the market

At the same time, you will understand why trendlines are effective in trending markets

Ultimately, the market is only about how support and resistance create a field of influence and how they function in the current market

Whether that is a trend market with angled support and resistance

Or a range market with horizontal support and resistance

A stair-step trend is a range market; it is not a trending market, but a range market

In a trending market, you should mainly focus on angled support and resistance

That makes market sense easier; easing your market perception prevents it from becoming distorted

As long as the market moves, you can identify equilibrium points and breakdown locations at all price levels

Support and resistance keep things honest and help with market recognition for entry

For entry, using follow-through and break, just like a flag, is effective

Flag patterns, too,

basically the way to profit in the market is

From support/resistance markets to breakouts in the direction of the trend

And the market is most effective on the long-term timeframes

In other words, support/resistance markets and breakouts are already priced in on the market

Because they are priced in,

Long-term timeframes combined with support/resistance break in the direction of the trend are effective

Earlier I described trend markets plus re-trending flag,

This time, it is the logic of a box market breaking out in the direction of the break

In angled support/resistance and horizontal support/resistance markets

There are many cases where a boxed, enclosing market forms

In such markets, a break of support/resistance makes the trend-following approach work effectively

The sequence is

Box market → breakout → follow-entry outside the box

This is the flow

Support/resistance break with trend-following is a first-move entry, essentially a first-move trend hunting

That is because the long-term timeframe represents the central market movement

This allows for chasing substantial profits

At that time, technical analysis is not necessary

Rather, learn to judge support/resistance using only the chart

Because that will be usable for eternity

This is a logic that seems to capture the market trader’s intent, so it is naturally effective

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