Possible market outlook and bias awareness

It does influence the long-term trend, but

it is because it is a “maybe market,” you just need to align the timeframe trend you’re using with it

If the long-term trend doesn’t exert influence, you’ll just take a big loss and have no real edge

Because everything ends up as a “maybe market”

All trading comes down to either following the trend or riding the trend; this is all based on bias recognition

If you try to follow the trend and not lose, you’ll mostly lose

So you’re left to trade with bias

There’s only the actual run of the trade at the end, i.e., the real-time trend market

At those times you have no choice but to switch bias into the trend; that’s the market

Basically, I’ve never deviated from this market concept

However, attempting to do this will still fail

Why? Because even if you switch bias, it’s still a “maybe market”

If the “maybe market” doesn’t exert long-term influence, you’ll incur a “big loss”

So in the end, cutting losses becomes the best approach

Especially averaging down is a characteristic of contrarian trading that can be used in any market

But contrarian trading has no limits, which is why

In the end you must close out with a loss

The key is to have the mindset of cutting losses when a bias-driven “maybe market” arrives

Even when you’re following the trend, you end up losing from profits offsetting each other mid-way

There’s plenty of room for a round-trip loss in the logic, and I think it’s foolish not to lean toward profits

The mechanism of following the trend

Break of support/resistance — that alone should be enough

In the first place, box-range breakouts are pointless to worry about

Since it may or may not exert influence, chasing such things is meaningless

For now, what is simple and easy to grasp in effect is everything

Once you seize it, the successful profit awaits

If you rely on averaging down

You’re left to rely on the market

Sometimes the trend breaks cleanly, sometimes it doesn’t

So ultimately

You arrive at the idea of “entering at a point where profit comes in at the right timing”

That essentially only leaves the Dow Theory’s “enter on a clear N-break” as a possibility

In a simple contrarian approach, the market hasn’t actually changed

In a simple trend-following approach, except for timing you’ll lose

The optimal timing is basically

“Trend following or N-break or trend-following at most”

Conversely

“Everything else is the same as averaging down and just entrusting to the market”

One shot plus stop loss

Flexible switching

Turnaround type

Switching is simple

Both turnaround type and one-shot are features of averaging down

Averaging down will ultimately self-destruct, so trade only with a stop loss

The timing of entry determines the trade

Timing arrives every hour

Repeat the Dalambail (D'Alembert) approach at market timing

Being a full-time trader has no meaning

Time and price are too slow

Usually it takes 12–24 hours for the market to change

Usually it takes 3–6 hours to switch and reach timing

Profit can be earned if you wait one hour only when the balance is favorable

Since the market only trends over the long term, I don’t see a purpose in full-time trading

Averaging down ends up losing and finishes

Then it would be a matter of stop loss with Dalambail or reverse martingale

Since the market trends long-term, if it trends long-term, it only results in more negative tally

Believe the market direction

In the short term, averaging down with stops yields success

Five losses, six wins = one win

Long-term setup success

One loss, six wins = five wins

For example, something like this

I don’t think there is much edge

Averaging down just uses the retracement in turnaround

It simply ends in a market where you can’t cut losses

Turnaround is for eventual profit-taking in a swing

There is no option but to trade using time-waiting entry timing

And that approach is the most efficient

Time waiting type

Turnaround

Only one of the two

The answer in probabilistic thinking is

In the end

Turnaround or time waiting

You’re managing with one of these systems

Anything else has poor turnover

Patterns that involve time waiting

Range-type, staircase-type

Patterns that are not time waiting

Trend-type, turnaround-type

The importance of narrowing to one-shot

With even張り (uniform positioning), you won’t increase unless you focus on one-shot

So you must incorporate time waiting and setup

A style of trading that alternates between setups and trades with a three-hour waiting period

If you don’t adopt this style, you’ll end up facing a non-facing type

If it becomes non-facing, it will be either averaging down or turnaround, so

If you trade this discretionaryly, you’ll end up with a half-baked mix of averaging down and turnaround

So don’t abandon the three-hour waiting style

Three-hour waiting = 15-minute chart

Six-hour waiting = 30-minute chart

Twelve-hour waiting = 1-hour chart

At any of these timeframes, the market is moving

If you only follow the trend

envelopes (14) and William’s %R (14) are everything

If a trend appears, profits will occur

If the trend doesn’t appear, you’ll enter in the middle timing

Trading that way reduces profits

In gold, it takes 20–30 trades before a trend appears

Four trades yield 30 wins

But that is only if the trend actually follows through

If the trend doesn’t become large and ends,

You must take profits along the way

Whether you can do that or not is the issue

In that case, it’s probably better to follow the trend with averaging down

Just trade honestly and let it grow

That is the holy grail

If you trade with trend-following, you’ll make profits

But if a major trend doesn’t occur

In the end

It’s the same as a range trade, and you must offset the results

Therefore, I’m only talking about stop-trade with a three-hour waiting period

Anyway, whether you’re following the trend or waiting for three hours, the idea is the same, and

Stop-trade is more discretionary, so it tends to be more profitable

Ultimately, the market is about timing

If you think in terms of frequency, you’ll lose

It’s better to trade in one-hour intervals

Never do averaging down, that’s allAll entries should be limited to one lineIf you trade with only one line, as long as the trend doesn’t advance, you don’t need more than one lineAdding means multiple entriesMultiple entries means averaging downIf there’s no trend progression, the edge is essentially zeroUnless there is trend progression, both upside and downside are possiblePut differently, profits only widen with trendsOnly single currencies are feasibleOnly following the trend or similar※ If you want to keep earning with FX, go here ↓https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/users/177506

All entries should be limited to one line

If you trade with only one line, as long as the trend doesn’t advance, you don’t need more than one line

Adding means multiple entries

Multiple entries means averaging down

If there’s no trend progression, the edge is essentially zero

Unless there is trend progression, both upside and downside are possible

Put differently, profits only widen with trends

Only single currencies are feasible

Only following the trend or similar

※ If you want to keep earning with FX, go here ↓