Perspective of the Holy Grail of the Contrarian Indicator

Hercules of the contrarian indicator

Waiting for time or waiting for profits to grow

Contrarian indicators are often losing

Then they recover with profit patterns

In casinos, recovery patterns

It is said that both trend following and contrarian strategies can be profitable

Try using both contrarian and normal indicators

If you use the normal indicator as is, you will keep losing

Normal indicator

Contrarian zero-cut type = middle-risk type averaging down

Contrarian indicator

Trend-following stop-loss type = low-risk

Better to view on smaller timeframes

15-minute chart

Wait and observe for changing market perception 12 hours

Wait and observe for market entry 3 hours

Contrarian indicators trade infrequently

Contrarian indicators are judged by numeric values

The market moves with this contrarian indicator

When a trend on the 1-minute chart is forming, it concerns contrarian matters

In other words, about 2 pips system

One side of the normal indicator is expanding its profits

If you use the normal indicator as is, you will keep losing

Even if you continue averaging down contrarian, if the market tilts, you can keep increasing

Pattern where the normal indicator wins = market moves forward then retraces

Pattern where the contrarian indicator increases = market does not retrace

Pattern of moving away from a staircase

Subsequent trend-following yields small profits then retraces, increasing losses

↑ In other words, averaging down contrarian is the “correct pattern” because it’s retracing and generating profit

Dow Theory

Trends and ranges

Trading recklessly

If unclear, take a break

No hesitation to contrarian

No hesitation to trend-follow

Market perception is absolute

Absolutely one-shot

1-hour and 30-minute observations

Profit targets fixed and infinite both frequently used

Small-time frame 5-minute rescaling absolutely; do not use other single frames; they interfere

First, eliminate the wildly oscillating market trades

Then continue to earn through market perception-based trading

Shut down all thoughts

Re-set trades by fully observing the 1-hour timeframe

Do not do anything other than stop-loss; do not engage in equal-weight entries

If you think timing is right, enter absolutely for the moment

Absolutely do not enter repeatedly afterward

Think of it as bottom-trading rather than averaging down

Discard market concepts; contrarian and trend-following without attachment, think of it as one-shot

Only look at market observations

One by one

Trade only based on market observations

Not the same as before

Starting now

Strictly adhere

Low to middle risk

Normal does not typically reach middle risk

If averaging down

Do 0.1% of 100 averaging downs

Stop-loss only on the trend

Aim for profits of 5 or more with trend and contrarian gains

Averaging down doesn't change in the end

Better to continue stop-trading on a single currency

Stops are only when waiting 12 hours or 24 hours for a trade

Otherwise, only momentum-based stop trading remains

Profit from averaging down

Profit from momentum

Any momentum trades mid-way cannot reach 100 million in a year

If you place a stop

You may average down, but you must reset market observation by waiting

Just place a stop in the direction the market is moving

Then trade by bringing that risk with you

Stops, then only reverse-martingale and pyramiding are everything

Advocating snail-trade

Do not worry about stop

Do not set a fixed limit

Only aim when profits occur

Only aim when entries are perfect (do not trade unless contrarian indicator is present)

Averaging down feels good when it hits but cannot win, so meaningless

Must systematize trades to become contrarian indicators

Systematization must be fixed; trades should be able to increase indefinitely into the future

Chase only profits

Trend type

Once every 12 hours

Profits are present

After 12 hours, profits are not present

A, Take profits when profits are rising

B, Take profits after profits continue to rise and end

C, Averaging-down type

A is the same logic as reverse-martingale

Ultimately B always wins

C contrarian indicator is the holy grail

Enter early in a short-term move and then leave it

You cannot know when the trend ends

Trading in places where you don’t want to trade = trend-follow

It’s not just contrarian; it’s a subtle place not clearly trend, enter as trend

Continue with only contrarian indicators

If not

It’s only in state A

In state A, those who reverse-martingale are still better off

In the end, it depends on timing and you may lose

A: a mechanism that increases by repetition

• Wait 12 hours to initiate

Trade on 15 minutes, 30 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours

If trading on a 4-hour chart, switch to 24-hour wait

• 1:2 reverse-martingale twice (logically same as zero-cut trading in essence)

Two times for +8

1:1 reverse-martingale three times

Three times for +7

1:2

1:5

1:2 tends to be more successful

Failure counts tend to exceed

1:1 to 1:3 is meaningless

Only target markets that reach 1:5 or more

Variable and fixed types are meaningless

Do not target markets unless they can reach 1:5 or more

↑ Because it doesn’t last long

Reverse-martingale is meaningless unless it reaches +7

Not different from doing 1:2 trades

Same as reverse-martingale

Carrying over has a time period

Typical duration

Taking interim contrarian trades means

Not taking the trend

Cannot systematically take all interim contrarian trades

The merit of interim contrarian trades is equivalent to win rate

Win rate equals number of consecutive wins, so building as reverse-martingale is more efficient

Because you’re chasing stops

A single 40-pip stop with one averaging-down type

Ultimately, you extend profits with a 20-pip stop

If you cut losses due to bias recognition,

If the market then fails to follow the trend, it’s nearly meaningless

The essence of averaging-down trades is to profit in trending markets too

Therefore, even if you cut losses

If the trend ultimately changes sharply, that’s just a round-trip loss

That breakout then becomes a trend

Ultimately only losses are recorded

In the end, think it’s a trend and commit to switching to trend trading

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