Earn in a genuine market with trend-following, earn in a fake market with contrarian trading
An ideal market flow is
a trend market → a range market → a trend market
in that order, but
in real markets
first, the concept of a range market does not exist
there is a range market, but
that is a constructed concept
in terms of true market positioning,
I think it is a “noise market”
look at past markets
is there a market that is neither trend nor range?
In that case, how would you classify the market?
Would you label it as neither a trend market nor a range market?
Doing so would make market observations even more complicated
Everyone says in unison, “simplicity is best,” but
this is also true, and it should be framed as “trend market and noise market.”
That way
when a true trend market arrives
you can switch to saying “the real market has arrived.”
If the concept of a range market existed
the thought of “could it be returning…?” would tend to arise
To eliminate that as well
it is absolutely better to think of it as a trend market and a noise market
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