Ichimoku Kinko Hyo can be traded in two ways: trend identification and bounce identification

Trend recognition is, needless to say, cloudy

like a cloud

You can recognize a trend from the up-and-down switching of this cloud

Also, by changing the parameters

you can have a technically displayed view that is “optimized for you”

People often say optimized, but

there is no necessity that that optimization is for the market

The parameters to optimize are, after all, for “one’s true self”

Otherwise they cannot be used in the market

That said,

technical analysis is ultimately hindsight-based theory

My tenet is that “everything is curve-fitted”

Because that is true for any logic

What has kept automated trading alive is still MA crossovers

which become a stable turning-point logic

Turning-point logic may seem unstable

If you consider the relationship between losses and gains, the ones that survive in the end are such turning-point logics

And if you try to grow with that long-term logic

you have to consider the maximum drawdown, which makes it a very long process

Even with curve fitting in place

What we handle is technicals that are optimized for our own nature

That is all there is to the fundamental, genuine technical market analysis

And thus, cloud display can be used for trend recognition

People say it follows the trend when the cloud is touched

But it tends to revert, similar to MA touch

Because fundamentally it is not driven by technicals

In other words

In a trending market, it returns, so it does not re-trend

That is all

There is no particular fact that “it is moving by technicals”

What is moving is more like the number of positions

Because in the end, it’s about the visually perceived aspects of technicals or textbooks

All of the general technical visuals become completely ineffective; the market becomes invalidated

In other words

If you think it moved according to technicals

It did not move according to technicals

That is the market where technical considerations are disregarded

From the start, there is no such thing as a technical analysis framework there

So you should feel that “technical itself is simply grasping the market in an easy-to-understand way”

Otherwise you’ll become a technicism supporter

Ultimately, the market is fundamental-priority

If that is so, then technicals must be used in a way that respects your true self

Baseline line and conversion line

I used these two because they were more useful than MA crossovers

Also

The combination of baseline and conversion line has a characteristic of not picking up common noise

That is, it has a property that does not mesh with the wavelength of noise

Which helps reduce market losses

This goes well with simple zero-line strategies like MACD and stripping away noise

If you use only zero-line strategies for MACD

Since you do not look at anything beyond the zero line, it means you are not caught in market noise

Using baseline and conversion line together makes it easier to capture

Even though I’ve explained up to here, in the end there must be a trend

For almost everyone to pursue truly unpredictable genuine trends

It is better not to handle technical analyses that would get caught in such noise and curve-fitting

That is the purpose of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo’s baseline and conversion line

The cloud too becomes easier to handle by changing parameters

Price reversal recognition can use the lagging span

This is, in a way, support-resistance recognition

But don’t cling too much to the idea of support-resistance

It is about exchanging through waveforms and patterns

Think in terms of fundamentals, not just following the chart

Otherwise you will trade under the notion of technical supremacy

You must grasp the market from a fundamental perspective to survive

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