An example of practical exchanges about trading strategies for discretionary trading

Discretionary trading = averaging down trading cannot

prevent the expansion of losses that could be stopped by a stop-loss

Even if 10 yen moves within a minute, it cannot be stopped; afterward, you cannot cut losses

Discretionary trading is easy to profit from, but

the maintenance margin changes extremely, so in terms of risk, it remains a high-risk

If starting with 200,000

If the profit rate is 5x, = about 0.5% profit

Since this is divided into four parts, 2% profit

Profit within a week

Do whatever it takes to only follow the trend

Make additional trades in the trend

Aim for a 5x profit rate

Set the stop-loss at the most recent bottom

With averaging down, you inevitably head toward a stop-out

Only when the stop trade increases the profit rate by five times or more does profit remain

While feeling that it’s okay

after that, the maintenance margin can rise to around 1800%, which is discretionary trading = averaging-down trading

Discretion is not able to withstand the burden of losses

Stop-loss was created as a handicap trade to mitigate that relief

Even if it’s 5% in one week, after a year it will become tenfold

Stop-loss

Contrarian-following and trend-following

Traded on a 12-hour reservation

Position-turn trading

There are only about that much

There are no other elements that yield profit beyond position-turn

Is trend-following important?

The trades being conducted are

A stop-loss based on averaging-down contrarian approach

Usually that yields profits

Conversely, doing the reverse trend-following only increases losses unnecessarily

Here

Contrarian-following and trend-following only increase losses

If you try to capture timing in the market, both will accumulate losses

Even if you capture either, timing will slip

Both carry the risk of expanding losses, and you must not add trades during a trend

If you try to shift to trend-following at the right timing, you’ll fail spectacularly, continue trend-following until a trend appears, and end up losing again

That’s what happens most of the time

Also, even if you try to just do trend-following

you will end up in a situation where losses from range markets cannot be recovered

Ultimately losses will continue to grow

At best, it takes about a month to recover

And if you miss that recovery period, your performance will continue to decline

Therefore, ultimately there remains only position-turn trading

Even 12-hour reservation trades are ultimately about timing

Profit expansion is nothing other than position-turn trading

All other aspects besides this “position-turn trading perspective” are fake

There is a place where contrarian-position-turn cannot be faced

In markets where you cannot face it, you must face it

Therefore you end up having to trade with position-turn and trend-following

Contraction to smaller bars and regular bars

In mid-term bar parameters, a retracement chart regards how far the trend can rise as a ceiling

In short-term bar parameters, a normal bar chart does not consider how far the trend can go

In the short-term sense, on a long-term chart

It’s easier to grasp timing relative to the trend

The trend starts from the long-term chart

If you pursue profits

You must faithfully follow the trend on the 30-minute and 1-hour charts

In other words, you can only grasp this flow through side jobs

If you stumble once

You cannot perform stop-loss trading

Because there is a lineage of negatives

A proper trend-following market must appear

And at that time, you must be able to perform proper market analysis

When the trend continues, you often end it there, making it hard to seize profits

So it’s hard to grasp profits

With the 1-hour chart

Analyzing with short-term parameters makes it clear

MA-leading is the only meaningful thing

Ultimately, in the realm of position-turns,

It is nothing other than a trend-turn

The idea of contrarian-position-turning only is good

Simply turning contrarian-position-turning as is has no meaning

That is

To merely gauge the trend

The only conclusion is to use technical analysis for trend inference

Even within position-turn,

If you trade only with signals for position-turn,

Losses become severe partway through

Also, with position-turning, markets will come that shatter stop-loss

Neither of these are easily treated with clear indicators like position-turn signals

Instead, view the market with trend signals rather than trend indicators

That’s the only method

Position-turn does not guarantee profits; the only thing that matters is that profits seem possible

In reality, it’s “the one who enters the stop-loss with a trend-following signal wins”

In other words, in a late-start theory

They are just aiming at the first move

This becomes the opposite pattern of contrarian averaging-down

In contrarian averaging-down, you should aim to maximize profits

Trend-following stop-loss is only a single shot

Beyond that, it’s not different from averaging down and often does not follow the trend

Both lead to risk and you must not add trades during a trend

Because profits were only tied to that market,

If no trend appears, you end up in a dried-up state, meaning you just keep losing as you trade

It’s easier to understand by the number of losses

If you keep trend-following and realize profits with discretion

In ranging markets, you’ll end up with huge losses

And because you trade with discretion, even if a trend market appears you cannot extend profits

If profits rise, the trend ends and you immediately reach stop-loss

Also, adding further trend-following trades

Even when the trend succeeds, it often returns mid-way

Each time you lose, and practically the contrarian averaging-down story is the same

The more it retreats, the more losses rise, and when the trend fails, you take it as a loss

From the start, there is only the way of “one-shot position-turn trend-following” that is correct

Which is muddled with contrarian one-shot

This is the current state of stop-loss trading

Apart from one-shot, the market dictates

In effect, it becomes the same theory as discretionary contrarian trading

Because

Whether it’s a stop-loss

In a strong trend market, you cannot trade according to the trend

Also, when the trend fails and stop-loss occurs

Market view is also distorted, so profits aren’t possible

Also, the one-shot contrarian is based on similar logic

In a trend market, you become quite cautious

However, one-shot position-turn follows trend-turning, so

You only observe

Also, from a hedging perspective, it becomes a safe trade

Talent is not something inherent

This lies in the point that profit changes with the act of contrarian following

Often people say it’s like turtle trading

Because someone broke the rules and did it

That is completely different

Because, in reality

It lies in the part where profits are extended

And in the number of trades

Also, if you use automated trading, the overall performance tends not to improve

That is the reality

There is meaning in contrarian + position-turn trading

Market that can return

Market that cannot return

This is it

And

Markets where position-turn works

Markets where it does not work

That’s all

Because these are loop patterns

No matter how much you trade, you will stop making a profit

Afterward you stop being able to profit

The only thing that leads to the negative spiral is the worst case

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