Reasons why discretion recommends averaging down type trading

Think in terms of stop loss

A trade that becomes a loss with a single entry and then reverses

A trade that uses averaging down

If you do it this way

A single-entry reversal is

only when the market is trending that you make a profit

and if you keep doing it, you will see the losses spread that you can’t quickly recover from

However, with averaging down, there are many redeeming aspects and it tends to be profitable

Basically, stop trying to judge the market as good or bad and think in averaging-down style

Just judge the market momentum

Doing it in the Dalembert averaging-down style is hell

It takes days to win

Averaging down is the downtrend before a trend appears

Just averaging down to seize market timing

In the end, it all depends on entry timing

Make entry timing mechanical

Why is a logic-variable trading approach bad

Because market momentum keeps changing

Therefore,

Ultimately,

It ends up either averaging-down or waiting for time

Why market-variation averaging-down is bad

Because you never know where the market ends

The latent risk is too large

If you were to do it

Only a retreat-type averaging-down

If you average down,

you must restrict to “contrarian averaging-down” only

Entry timing is basically all contrarian

Contrarian is effective

Averaging-down, in other words,

was supposed to be effective: to forcibly catch the contrarian entry timing through averaging-down

Basically, you should stick to choosing between “time-waiting type to set up contrarian entry” or placing orders

Because market moves are unpredictable and can move in unpredictable ways

If you trade on discretion forever, you can only chase it with contrarian averaging-down

Difference between averaging-down and a one-shot

If it comes back, instant profit — that’s all

If the market does not revert, you only incur losses

A one-shot setup has higher turnover

Besides, with discretionary averaging-down

There is the nature of “returns come back before turning a profit” and “you must always be fighting”

That’s why “market view gets distorted” and “losses become excessive”

Considering these, it’s better to use a time-waiting method

Because it’s far more efficient than trend-following trades

Why time-waiting is good with alternating 12 hours and 6 hours

Markets typically move with cycles of about 3–6 hours each way

To maintain entry timing and turnover,

You must aim for only a certain number of moves within the cycles

In other words, you must not be swayed by every single up-and-down

To adapt to all cycles means

Each time you must change your market view direction

And that just distorts market sense and increases losses

So there are traders who increase their capital with only contrarian averaging-down

In reality, aiming for a low-risk, high-return setup that targets only a few rounds within these cycles yields faster turnover

Meaning of contrarian averaging-down and the meaning of the fast turnover of time-waiting type

Because of these, capital increases

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