Why can it be said that trend-following on long timeframes is effective

Going with the trend is

different from counter-trend

losses appear first

and then profits grow later; that is the logic

and

short-term time frames have noise + even when it extends, the pips aren’t large

which is a disadvantage

long-term time frames have less noise + when it grows, the pips are large

which is an advantage

In a counter-trend logic

profits keep coming one after another, but you can’t escape unless you cut losses at the end

and even if you decide to cut losses at a breakout of support/resistance

losses just keep accumulating, and even if you keep making profits those losses offset them quickly

as a result, you end up with a net negative because you can’t utilize the counter-trend logic's advantages at all

In other words, counter-trend logic

to address a market where you can’t escape without cutting losses

all profits get offset and the losses become more prevalent

no matter what countermeasures you take, at some point a big loss will come

In the case of following the trend, it’s the reverse version,

even if losses keep appearing one after another, in the end profits appear, so the result is an overall increase

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