MMA Weekly Report Nikkei Stock Average By Raymond Merriman Aug.7 2023

1. Review

Last week, the Nikkei Stock Average closed at 32,192, up 566 points from the previous week. The week's high was 33,488 on Tuesday the 1st. The week's low was 31,934 on Friday the 4th. As in the previous week, the weekly high exceeded the upper resistance line, but from that point the market fell back, and the closing price fell below the weekly lower support line, making the outlook extremely bearish. Therefore, the sequence of bearishness may still continue. In fact, the weekly closing price fell five times below the Weekly Trend Indicator Point (TIP: last week 32,442) for four consecutive weeks, so the prevailing trend has been downgraded from “neutral” back to “downtrend.”

2. Cycles

As explained in “Forecast 2023” published last December, the Nikkei Stock Average has a long-term market cycle with an 17-year period. Its starting point is October 28, 2008, at 6,994. 2023 marks its 15th year. This cycle is divided into two halves by an 8.33-year cycle, with the first half ending at the double bottom of 14,864 on June 24, 2016 and 14,865 on February 12, 2016. The latter half (the 2nd–8.33 year cycle) has begun from here.

Further details can be viewed in the PDF.

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