円安が止まれば、海外勢の買い越しは続かない。荒野浩の『テクニカル・ルームから』　

Delivery date: 2016/11/06 08:41

Overseas traders' monthly net buying
was at its peak in October,

The net buying (spot + futures) by overseas traders in October
was the highest of the year. We examined the overseas traders' buying conditions in April, July, and October,
on a monthly basis.

Yen depreciation, overseas buying, and rising stocks

As can be seen above, the low dollar (high yen) and the stock price low occurred with a one-business-day lag only in April; in July and October, the yen high and the stock price low, and the yen low and the stock price high dates fully matched. It is clear that the pattern of yen weakness → overseas buying → rising stocks is happening.






If the yen stops weakening, stock gains will not continue

Since the beginning of this year, overseas buying of Japanese stocks by foreign traders has not occurred for two consecutive months, but this is the same as saying that yen weakness has not continued.
In October, the trend toward yen weakness over the month stopped due to the uncertainty surrounding the presidential election.




Even after the presidential election, simply passing major events does not guarantee that the Trump phenomenon will disappear, nor that the market will become devoid of nerves. The November market is not simply an extension of October; concerns about a heavy head again persist.