MMA Weekly Report Nikkei Stock Average By Raymond Merriman Jul.18 2023

1. Review

The Tokyo Stock Average (Nikkei 225) closed last week 2 points higher than the previous week, at 32,391. The week's low was on Wednesday the 12th at 32,791. The week's high was on Friday the 14th at 32,780. The week's low, though close to the downside support line, did not break below and rebounded. At the close, it hovered between the downside support line and the upside resistance line, so it was neutral but showing strength. However, there is also a possibility that the bearish sequence may still continue.

In fact, the week's closing value was below the Weekly Trend Indicator Points (W-TIP: last week 32,959) for the second week in a row.

But currently, the underlying trend remains in a ‘neutral’ state.

2. Cycles

As explained in the December issue of “Forecast 2023,” there exists a long-term market cycle of 17 years in the Nikkei 225. Its starting point is October 28, 2008, at 6,994. 2023 marks the 15th year of this cycle. This cycle is divided into two halves by an 8.33-year cycle, with the first half ending at the “double bottom” of June 24, 2016 (14,864) and February 12, 2016 (14,865). The second half (the 2nd–8.33 year cycle) has begun from here.

For more, please see the PDF.

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