6/29 5:58 Newsletter dispatch Scenario of USD/JPY price movement
Today’s USD/JPY Forecast: Building a Price-Action Scenario for USD/JPY
This is a lengthy preface.
Yesterday I attended a briefing hosted by Monex Securities
for TradeStation.
Since I hardly ride trains, I took this opportunity to buy PASMO for the first time in my life.
I didn’t know how to use it, so I asked station staff, and it’s indeed convenient. My wife teased me about which era I’m from, though…
Regarding TradeStation, I was given a programming book that costs 2,500 yen, and the author himself came to the venue,
and he gave a passionate lecture explaining what can actually be done.
Out of my own curiosity, I checked whether one of my stock investment strategies could be executed, and I was assured that it could,
so I’m thinking of studying it a bit.
So, onto the main topic.
Not just USD/JPY, in order to win in the market, it’s important to have a mental image of price movement.
Did this move lure in shorts, or shake out longs…
Did this move lure in longs, or shake out shorts…
To form that image, a fundamental understanding of the environment must be in place; otherwise you’ll just trade by chasing price.
For example, even in an uptrend, there’s no guarantee of a breakout in range-bound conditions.
A break below can lure out shorts momentarily, or shake out longs that are a heavy weight, and push price higher.
Ultimately, that can become a “fakeout,” appearing on the chart as a rise and fall.
You must analyze to some extent, form the image, and clearly define the entry and exit points before trading.
We perform such analysis every day. It may sound incredibly easy, but in truth most traders can’t do it.
The reason is simple: it’s tedious and takes a lot of time to get used to.
What 90% of traders cannot do. I think persisting with this is crucial.
Today’s market image is published in a video that hasn’t received any views (laughs).
＜2018.6.29 05:25 Scenario Creation＞
● Scenario 1
If the range of 110.450–650 is broken to the upside, price could rise to around 110.750–850, followed by ranging or a pullback. A breakout above the range could push to around 110.950–111.050. A break below or a pullback could take price to around 110.400–500. After rising to around 110.950–111.050, price may again range or pull back near that level. A breakout above the range could push to around 111.150–250. If the price later rises and the upside momentum strengthens, it could rise toward around 111.350–550.
● Scenario 2
If the range of 110.450–650 is broken to the downside, price could fall to around 110.350–250, followed by ranging or a pullback. A break below could take price to around 110.150–050. A breakout above the range or a pullback could push to around 110.650–550. After falling to around 110.150–050, price may again range or pull back around that area. A break below the range could take price down to around 109.950–850. A breakout above or a pullback could push to around 110.450–350. If downside momentum strengthens and price falls to around 109.750–550, further declines to that extent are possible.
Image of an Uptrend Scenario
Image of a Downtrend Scenario
I Tried Forecasting USD/JPY in a Video
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