What will happen to this week’s USD/JPY!?
This week is packed with important indicators.
What’s drawing the most attention is the US May CPI on the 13th (Tuesday), the FOMC meeting from the 13th to the 14th and the policy rate announcement after the meeting, and Chairman Powell’s press conference.
On Thursday the 15th, keep an eye on US May retail sales, and on Friday the 16th, the BOJ monetary policy meeting and the policy rate announcement after the meeting, along with Governor Ueda’s press conference!
6/12 (Mon):
[US] May Monthly Budget Statement
6/13 (Tue):
[US] Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Day 1
[US] May Consumer Price Index (CPI)
6/14 (Wed):
[US] May Producer Price Index (PPI)
[US] FOMC policy rate announcement after the meeting
[US] Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve Board, regular press conference
6/15 (Thu):
[JP] Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting (Day 1)
[JP] April machinery orders
[JP] May trade statistics
[US] Initial jobless claims for prior week, continuing claims
[US] June NY Fed manufacturing index
[US] May retail sales
[US] June Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index
[US] May industrial production
[US] April net foreign direct investment in the US
6/16 (Fri):
[JP] BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting, policy rate announcement after the meeting
[JP] Kazuya Ueda, BoJ Governor, regular press conference
[US] June University of Michigan consumer sentiment index – preliminary
The CPI to be released on the 13th is said to be influential for the Fed’s policy decisions as well. Although the prevailing expectation is that the FOMC will hold rates on the 13th–14th, the outlook could change depending on the CPI result, so attention is focused on the outcome.
From the 13th to the 14th, the US FOMC will be held, and after the meeting, around 3:00 a.m. Japan time on the 15th, the policy rate will be announced, followed by Powell’s press conference at 3:30 a.m. Market expectations are broad that after holding rates at this meeting, rate hikes will resume at the July meeting, so the FOMC statement and Powell’s press conference will be watched for guidance on future rate hikes.
If US May retail sales come out stronger than expected on the 15th, the market is likely to push up the dollar on bets of a July rate hike resume.
On the 16th (Fri) the BOJ meeting will be held. It will be interesting to see what direction of policy will be indicated!
Next week is filled with important events, and their outcomes will determine the future direction of the USD/JPY.
Wishing you smooth navigation of the market waves and continued profits.
The chart below is USD/JPY daily chart.
Predicted resistance lines
139.928 yen
140.452 yen
140.800 yen
Predicted support lines
138.658 yen
138.434 yen
134.754 yen
The chart below is USD/JPY weekly chart
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