USD/JPY Current Analysis: “The major adjustments after Abenomics are nearing their end” June 3, 2018
June 3, 2018 USD/JPY Monthly
Looking at the monthly chart, the USD/JPY pair is in a long and significant corrective phase following the Abenomics era.
With trendlines drawn on the correction range and the triangular consolidation narrowing, the end of the correction is expected to be near.
The swing forming the triangle consolidation is a five-wave abcde triangle, and afterward, there is a possibility that the yen depreciation will continue, or actually, it may not be a triangle consolidation but the current progress in wave c of the abc, breaking the lower trendline and extending wave c, leading to a yen appreciation.
Currently, due to rising concerns about trade friction, the environment tends to favor a yen appreciation.
MACD has hovered near zero since around early 2017, indicating a sideways market.
The Bollinger Bands are also horizontal and converging in sync with the triangle consolidation.
June 3, 2018 USD/JPY Weekly
On the weekly chart, you can see the Trump rally and the subsequent correction phase.
The upswings in April and May can currently be viewed as corrections to the prior decline, and if you draw the Fibonacci retracement (light blue), you can see it was halted at 61.8%.
The latest candle is bearish, but with a long lower wick, making a straightforward continuation of the decline unlikely. It may form a bearish flag as a correction to the April–May rise.
From the MACD shape, it seems the bullish swing is ending and the bearish swing is starting to take over.
The Bollinger Bands show limited movement on both the upside and downside.
This month, the movement is likely to remain in the region sandwiched between the upper and lower trendlines?
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This article is an excerpt from the blog “If you watch and freely place, the market becomes a tool for success.”
