From now on, keep in mind the proverb "mouha mada nari, mada wa mou nari" (the saying that what is future becomes presentthrough patience)
To our subscribers
Regarding last Wednesday's comment, we learned today that it had not been published, and although it was late, we have published it today.
We sincerely apologize for the inconvenience.
We sincerely apologize for the inconvenience.
In this week's forecast, the main factor behind the recent rise in Japanese stocks is believed to be buying by foreign investors. However, if the U.S. market shakes due to the debt ceiling issue, caution is required.
If there is a significant decline, Japanese companies have been actively returning value to shareholders, and relatively undervalued Japanese stocks are expected to be bought back. Also, since earnings are being reported through Monday the 15th, there is a possibility of speed adjustments. Therefore, the range was set at 28,500 to 29,700 yen, and at the 29,700 yen level, caution was advised.
However, on Monday, May 15, the index rose to 29,626 yen, exceeding 29,500 yen for the first time in a year and a half, and on Tuesday, the 16th, it rose temporarily to 29,916 yen, +290 yen, and closed at 29,842 yen, up for the fourth day in a row, approaching the 30,000 level. Following the U.S. tech stock rally the previous day, the rise was led by futures, mainly semiconductor-related stocks.
A strong trend led by foreigners, underpinned by the Bank of Japan's monetary easing and measures to correct PBR below 1x (price-to-book ratio), has driven this advance, including shareholder return policies.
And today, Wednesday the 17th, opened at +69 yen at 29,912 yen, with a continued gradual rise, and the closing price was +250 yen at 30,093 yen, recovering to the 30,000 level for the first time since September 28, 2021 (1 year and 8 months). Today's rise is thought to be driven by foreign buying.
There is a strong sense of upside, and hitting 30,000 on the Nikkei 225 is an immediate target, but as the saying goes “what’s not yet is coming,” if you think it’s still okay, there is a high chance that the market will turn down sooner than you expect.
Foreign investors (short-term players) have been buying using futures, so if a drop occurs, their exit will be quick, making heightened caution essential from here.
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