For the moment, it is likely to remain in a range around 29,000 yen.
This week, on May 2 (Tuesday) during the regular trading hours, the price reached 29,278 yen intraday and 29,157 yen at the close, both marking year-to-date highs, so for the near term, we should consider the possibility of a peak adjustment in May.
On the 8th (Monday), as dollar selling and yen buying progressed during the holidays, the Nikkei Stock Average fell under profit-taking pressure, dropping to as low as 28,931 yen, down 226 yen, with a close at 28,949 yen, down 208 yen. However, of the index's decline, about 101 yen was due to a negative contribution from Fast Retailing, so overall the drop was not substantial.
Nevertheless, on the 9th (Tuesday), with U.S. tech stocks rising the previous day and the yen weakening, there was a sharp rebound led by buying in tech stocks, making a gain of 292 yen to 29,242 yen.
Intraday, the new year-to-date high from the 2nd could not be surpassed, but at the close it surpassed the year-to-date high with a 292 yen gain to 29,242 yen, reaching the highest level in 1 year and 4 months since January 5, 2022 (close at 29,332 yen). Naturally, this level is considered overbought in the near term, so today, the 10th (Wednesday), it closed down 120 yen at 29,122 yen.
For the Nikkei to break out into a full-fledged uptrend, the Dow Jones average would need to break above last December 13's recovery high of 34,712 yen. Before that, the price must clear the 34,300 level, a resistance reached in January and February. Until this resistance is overcome, there is potential for volatile swings. It has risen to 34,257 on May 1, and just needs a little more to go higher.
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