Today, due to yesterday's drop in U.S. stocks, it fell below 28,500 yen
In this week's forecast, there is a possibility that the price will rise to 28,778 yen, which is level with the intraday high of 28,734 yen on March 9, and surpass the year-to-date high in the intraday session. This aligns with the rule of thumb that “prices tend to reach highs around the big May holidays,” so it is considered a potential turning point here.
This stems from expectations that profits for this term would be conservative, but in reality, some companies delivered good numbers in a positive surprise, and overall the index attempted a rebound.
On Tuesday the 25th, in the morning session the price rose to 28,806 yen, exceeding the year-to-date high of 28,018 yen (closing price on April 18), a gain of 213 yen, with the close at 28,705 yen, down 112 yen. However, in the afternoon session the gains narrowed, ending up 26 yen higher at 28,620 yen. On Wednesday the 26th, the previous day’s U.S. stock market fell across all three indices, starting at 28,471 yen (▼141), and in the afternoon it briefly dropped to 28,319 yen (▼300), but partially recovered to close at 28,416 yen (▼203). This increases the probability that the near-term high of 28,806 yen from yesterday is the short-term top.
As of now, the idea that the high around the big May holidays will occur seems to hold, with the high day likely to differ slightly from the rule of thumb. However, from here on, there are events such as the Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting on April 27 (Thursday)–28 (Friday), the Golden Week from April 29 to May 7, and the FOMC meetings on May 2–3, after which the market is expected to lack momentum. After that, as the saying goes, the market may take about 10 days to “rest.”
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