Psychological program where buying and selling intersect

The psychological milestone of 1,000,000 yen for the yen was easily breached, but around the psychological milestone of 1,090,000 yen (10,000 dollars) for the dollar, upside pressure gradually increased, and BTC fell toward around 1,000,000 yen due to profit-taking. However, since the 100-day moving average is strongly respected, buying tends to come in at levels below 1,000,000 yen, and it feels like a range market around 980,000 to 1,090,000 yen has begun.

The author was aiming for a trend this week and took quite a hit. In such a range-bound market, the best approach is not to force trades; wait until you reach a level with a sense of security, then sell on the way back and buy on dips repeatedly.

From the formation, it looks like a pennant pattern, so if it tries again and breaks through 1,090,000 yen, it will rise smoothly toward around 1,250,000 yen; conversely, if it breaks the 100-day moving average near 980,000 yen or the support line, it could retest around 900,000 yen.

That said, looking at the market participants recently, there doesn’t seem to be much enthusiasm, so it seems it will take a little longer to rise.

What drew attention as a positive factor this week was Goldman Sachs, a U.S. firm, hiring the head of cryptocurrency trading from outside and establishing a dealing desk. This could bring new players into the cryptocurrency market.

However, it is highly likely that this desk is for handling futures—a derivative product (not strictly cryptocurrency)—and it is not yet clear whether they will participate in spot trading. For large financial firms like GS, spot trading would be very costly, and with each regulatory change they would have to redesign their business. Unlike currencies or securities, the settlement of spot trades is not straightforward and must be integrated with blockchain, creating several operational challenges. It also requires personnel. Therefore, for the time being, they may strengthen client relationships using futures and similar instruments, and make a final judgment once the know-how accumulates. Personally, I think this is still a long way off.

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【Author】

Nishikawa Saio Nakamura (Kawada Saio)

Trading Desk, Market Division, Traiders Securities

Born in Geneva, Switzerland. Graduated from Keio University.

Experience traveling the world lends credibility to a fan-oriented fundamentals analysis grounded in real-world experience.

Utilizes behavioral economics learned as a student to analyze market participants’ psychological biases theoretically and apply them to trading.

Hobby: Shogi; a skilled amateur with a strong rating. Strategic maneuvers in the middle game help in reading the next move in the market.

“The masses are always wrong” is my creed.

【Disclaimer】

The Bitcoin market information and other content provided on this site reflect the author’s personal views alone and are not guaranteed by the author, Traiders Securities Co., Ltd., or our company as to accuracy or safety. Also, such information is intended to provide reference and does not endorse any particular investment actions or management methods regarding cryptocurrencies. Please make the final investment decision yourself. Note that any gains or losses from investments belong to the investors. We, the author and Traiders Securities Co., Ltd., are not responsible for any damages resulting from such information.

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