An EA that hires discretionary traders with a +50% annual return "Nice Shot!"
Aiming for 1,000 pips per year with solid logic.
“Nice Shot!”
【Nice Shot Overview】
Currency pair: [USD/JPY]
Trading style: [Scalping]
Maximum number of positions: 1
Timeframe used: M5
Maximum stop loss: 210; note: most losses are due to the internal logic.
Take profit: 110; note: most profits come from the internal logic.
Special notes: weekend close feature and compounding feature available
A new release from “Double-E,” who leverages experience as a discretionary trader to create system trades.
“Nice Shot!”
It is a single-position USD/JPY scalping strategy and a popular type of system trading.
Forward running for one month with +90 pips—a strong start!
【Backtest Analysis】
2008.01.01-2018.3.30
Spread: 1.0 pips
0.1 lot fixed
Net profit: +1.02 million yen
Maximum drawdown: -65,000 yen
Total trades: 4,337 (annual average over 400 trades)
Average gain: 1,345 yen
Average loss: -2,152 yen
Win rate: 68.3%
This yields a risk-reward ratio of 0.625 (average gain divided by average loss). A win rate above 63% ensures profitability.
Maximum drawdown per 0.1 lot is 65,000 yenand that is attractive for its low drawdown.
As it's a single-position, you can operate with leverage, and with more than 400 trades per year, compounding could yield good results.
（Monthly P/L）
There are no months with a loss probability over 50%, so it can be operated year-round.
（Annual P/L）
Profits were small in 2012 and 2015, but the following year tends to break through.
If operated for more than two years, you can expect quite good results.
In 2018 it was negative for three months, but with a 62% win rate, it's understandable.
【Trading Example】
The win rate when a trend is present is quite high!
In situations of making new highs and higher lows (buy turn), going with the trend and losing happens just like discretionary traders and
are the same. In addition to fixed SL, there are logic-based exits, so the probability of hitting the maximum SL isn't that high.
The max drawdown is 210 pips, while the average drawdown is 21 pips, so the usual stop-loss range is narrow.
Looking at the entry points, there is no irritation like “Why entry here?!?” so
I think the entry/exit logic is convincing even to discretionary traders.
This is an EA whose entry points I'd like to emulate.
【Expected Annual Return & Compounding】
Maximum drawdown per 0.1 lot is 65,000 yen, and the average expected annual return is about 100,000 yen.
The required margin for 0.1 lot is,
4.4 + (6.5 x 2) = 174,000 yen
With ample margin0.1 lot per 200,000 yenwould allow safe operation.
In that case,the expected annual return is 50%。Wonderful!
Now, regarding the compounding feature, the default setting is to hold 0.5 lots per 1,000,000 yen.
We backtested the last five years with the default settings
1,000,000 yen ⇒ 9,640,000 yen, an increase of indeed +864%!
An EA with around 50% annual return, and the price is also affordable!
‘Nice Shot!’
12,000 yen
