Takaki Komei “Weekly Gold Price Outlook” March 13, 2023 issue
The representative director and president of Investment Daily, and a master of cycle analysis, Takashi Kabuki, pens a weekly report on the outlook for the gold market.
This is the Gold Market Outlook report.
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The U.S. Department of Labor announced on the 10th that non-farm payrolls (NFP) for February rose by 311,000, greatly surpassing market expectations of 205,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 3.6% (market expectation 3.4%). Judgments on strength vary, but the outlook is that the Fed’s monetary policy will become more hawkish. Nevertheless, in all markets, gold rose sharply, the dollar softened somewhat, the dollar/yen fell by nearly 4 yen from the prior high, and the 10-year Treasury yield fell sharply. This situation itself reflects a dovish reaction.
Below, we present analysts’ views.
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Chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, Rubyla Falkey
February NFP exceeded expectations, but compared to January’s revised gain of 504,000, the growth slowed. The unemployment rate rose by 0.2 percentage points to its highest level since November 2022. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% month over month (vs. 0.3% expected), and were up 4.6% year over year (vs. 4.7% previously). These data indicate the labor market remains strong alongside the economy, with rapid job creation continuing. However, the rise in unemployment and slower wage growth suggest potential adjustments in the tone of the economy. With a solid labor market and persistent inflationary pressures, the Fed is expected to raise the policy rate over the coming meetings. However, whether the pace of rate hikes accelerates at the next FOMC meeting on the 21–22 will depend on this statistic and the CPI to be released on the 14th next week. (New York Jiji News)
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For the continuation, please see the PDF file.
【Takashi Kabuki — Profile】
Graduated from Kwansei Gakuin University, Faculty of Economics. In 1995, partnered with world-renowned U.S. market analyst Raymond Merriman and issued the domestic first market cycle and astrology reports. He is well-regarded for his market analysis using cycles and astrology. Representative Director of Investment Daily, Investment Daily Publishing Co., Ltd., Director of Wakabayashi FX Associates, member of the Japanese Technical Analysts Association, Editor-in-Chief of Investment Daily α.
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