From a breakout of the falling channel to an upward trend
The decline channel that had continued since the end of last year was broken through,BTCand the bullish mood is rising again.
■ Short-covering occurred after breaking the downtrend channel
Breaking out of the downtrend channel that has dominated this year's marketBTCprice decline temporarily ended.
From the strong momentum when the channel was broken and the body extended rapidly within an hour, I sensed that many players had placed stop-loss orders around this line, creating enormous buying pressure. When there are many such players, the stop-loss orders tend to trigger the next stop-loss, making a trend reversal likely; in fact,BTC surged instantly to1,000,000 yen above3/13 high1,060,000 yen, reaching higher levels.
Afterwards, due to a major bug in Ethereum's smart contracts, the price fell to970万円, but the downward mood has ended for now, and the outlook for the cryptocurrency market has brightened.
■ If licenses for exchanges progress, the upward momentum will strengthen
From hereBTC/JPYis1,200,000 yen,1,500,000 yen, and then2,000,000 yen to be in sight; for that, entry of new players is indispensable. In addition to real demand transactions that I have been mentioning, a major point will be how quickly the Financial Services Agency restarts the authorization of cryptocurrency exchanges.
Even in a context where prices are recovering, without supporting material, positive news coverage will not appear. Without positive coverage, attracting new investor classes will be difficult. The existing trader base is shrinking, so if this continues, there will be a sense that the upside is not sufficient.
In particular, the media's view of the cryptocurrency market has a strong narrative of “restructuring led by the Financial Services Agency,” so this sentiment needs to change. If cryptocurrency exchanges strengthen security and self-regulation, and the Financial Services Agency allows new entrants, the restructuring will be deemed complete, entering the second phase, and this could spur new investment.
In the near term, after anchoring around100 yen, expect to break through1,060 yen and aim for1,270 yen.
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【Author】
Kawada Saiou(Kawada Saiou)
Trading Division, Market Desk, Traders Securities
Born in Geneva, Switzerland. Graduated from Keio University.
Having traveled to many countries, his fact-based fan mentality analysis is persuasive.
Utilizing behavioral economics learned in school, he analyzes psychological biases of market participants theoretically and applies them to trading.
Hobby: shogi; a high amateur level, using the mid-game strategic maneuvers to read the next move in the market.
“The crowd is always wrong” is his creed.
【Disclaimer】
The Bitcoin price information and other content provided on this site reflect the writer's personal views and are not guaranteed by the writer, Traders Securities Co., Ltd., or our company to be accurate or safe. Moreover, such information is intended to be a reference and does not constitute a recommendation of any particular investment action or management method regarding virtual currencies. Please make investment decisions at your own discretion. Profits and losses from investments belong entirely to investors. The writer, Traders Securities Co., Ltd., and our company shall not be liable for any damages incurred based on this information.
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