Japanese Stocks Upper Wicks Stall! Is the rebound’s high limited?

The Dow, the highlight of U.S. stocks, shows a weak rebound but on a daily basis has temporarily pierced above the upper resistance

The Nikkei Stock Average also moved to break through 22,000 yen.

However, both the U.S. and Japanese stock markets could not firmly clear the daily cloud, and on a weekly basis

the Dow was pushed back toward the upper resistance line again.



★Here is the previous article

It seems to become a point that will continue to be watched as an upper resistance.

This week may again be a week of attempting higher levels or a signal for a decline.



In the foreign exchange market, the U.S. 10-year yield rose, favoring dollar buying

and indicators in Europe have recently shown a downward trend and hints of an end to quantitative easing

leading to expectations to wait until the July meeting, so on a weekly basis

the market has been in a pattern of repeated long upper wicks, and since the dollar/yen has not been able to continue to rise

the cross yen is being pulled by the dollar-strengthening scenario.



Last week there were articles noting China's economic slowdown and the Shanghai Composite Index.

In 2015, the “Chinese Black Monday” turned the dollar/yen from around the 125 yen area into a downtrend

as a negative surprise, so given the current market environment, new

sparks could emerge that would cause a large market reaction.

★ Here is an indicator article predicting the Chinese Black Monday
“The crash signal suggested by indicator signs”


For the near term, domestic markets will be closed for Golden Week, so

exporters will place sell orders for the dollar/yen at the upper levels, making a continued rise unlikely

in such an environment. Also, if sell orders are not triggered during the holidays, when markets reopen

there have been many cases in the past where selling emerges, so although the market is moving toward a stable bottom,

we do not expect a continuation of the upside.


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★ In some parts, articles considered 105 yen or even 100 yen as possible lows, but
personally, I had warned about a sharp rebound scenario.


Market Compass, from the article posted February 18, 2018



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