The U.S.-Russia relations face a disastrous situation due to the Syria attack! What the future outlook looks like from the perspective of U.S. stocks ...
Following the joint military action by the US, UK, and France against Syria
the markets at the start of the week are likely to be highly volatile.
U.S. Secretary of Defense Mattis said this is "a one-time incident," but as for near-term market movements,
it may be a temporary movement, but President Trump stated that
"we will respond until the Assad regime stops using chemical substances,"
and appears to intend to repeat military action if chemical weapons are used again.
However, Russia, which has supported the Assad regime, strongly opposes this attack on Syria!
Undoubtedly, U.S.-Russia relations will worsen, and future Russian responses will determine whether
geopolitical risks will widen. It is worth keeping this in view.
Market participants are looking ahead to the weekend with great interest for the start of the week
as risk-off behavior likely leads to a stronger yen and a fall in stock prices.
What matters is the current market's technical conditions for transitioning,
as the U.S. stock market's sharp fluctuations since February are still influencing the market
and will likely continue to impact the Nikkei Average and the yen in the future.
From the movement of the Dow, the Nikkei average is staring at a near-term resistance around 22,000–22,500 yen, with the dollar/yen around the 108 yen level
and unless the Dow breaks above its resistance line convincingly, domestic market upside will remain limited.
Looking at the dollar/yen in isolation, after briefly falling below 105, it has rebounded from an oversold state, but mid-term, once it dips below 110, a downtrend begins
and there is a possibility of testing recent lows again. In the short term, domestic and international negative factors
may push prices down, but if they rebound and test the recovery, this movement could weaken, so be careful.
Some articles have suggested that a fall below 105 could even bring 100 into view,
but personally I have been noting comments warning about a sharp rebound.
From Market Compass, published February 18, 2018
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