MMA Weekly Report Nikkei Average Stock Price By Raymond Merriman Jan.23 2023

1. Review

Last week, the Nikkei 225 average closed at 26,553, up 434 points from the previous week. The week's low was 25,748 on Monday the 16th. The week's high was 26,816 on Wednesday the 18th. Although the week's low approached the weekly support line, it did not break and rebounded. Since the closing price exceeded the weekly upper resistance line, sentiment is extremely bullish. Furthermore, the week's closing price surpassed the Weekly Trend Indicator Point (TIP) for the first time in eight weeks, upgrading the underlying trend from “downtrend” to “neutral.”

2. Cycles

As explained in Forecast 2023, released last December, the Nikkei 225 has a long-term market cycle with a period of 17 years. Its starting point is October 28, 2008, at 6,994. 2023 marks its 15th year. This cycle is divided into two 8.33-year subcycles, with the first half ending at the “double bottom” of 14,864 on June 24, 2016 and 14,865 on February 12, 2016. From here, the second half (the 2nd 8.33-year cycle) begins. Moreover, this 8.33-year cycle is composed of two four-year subcycles, with the first four-year cycle bottom appearing at 16,358 on March 19, 2020. The current (second) four-year cycle, starting from this low, is in its 34th month as of January 2023. If this cycle, like the first four-year cycle, is built of three 16-month cycles, then the first 16-month cycle would have bottomed at 26,954 on August 20 of last year—the 17th month from the starting point (August 20–23, ±3 trading days for the★★★ important change day).

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