Kagami Takaki Akira "Weekly Gold Market Outlook" January 10, 2023 issue Kagami Takaki "Weekly Gold Market Outlook"
Kabutoki Takaoaki, the President and CEO of Investment Daily News Co., Ltd., and a renowned cycle analysis expert, writes a weekly report on the outlook for the gold market.
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At the very start of the New Year, New York gold prices opened with a gap up and continued to rise on the employment data released on the 6th. It reached a six-month high. Also, last week saw substantial moves in the employment figures. The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 223,000, beating market expectations of 200,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, the lowest level in about half a century. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month over month (vs. 0.4% expected). Year over year, earnings were up 4.6%, the smallest increase since August 2021.
In other words, signs of an economic slowdown are beginning to appear, with wage growth in December softening and November figures revised downward, which markets interpret as inflation being kept in check. The market has begun to anticipate that the pace of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve could be trimmed further to 25 basis points at the February FOMC meeting, consistent with expectations thus far.
In response to this trend, the yield on the 10-year Treasury declined sharply, the dollar weakened, and gold reached a six-month high of $1,875 per ounce. This suggests a favorable environment for gold, but questions remain about how much to trust this trend straight away.
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【Takaoaki Kabutoki — Profile】
Graduated from Konan University, Faculty of Economics. In 1995, partnered with the world-renowned U.S. market analyst, Raymond Merriman, to publish Japan’s first market cycle and astrology report. He is known for cycle and astrology-based market analysis. President and CEO of Investment Daily News Co., Ltd.; President and CEO of Investment Daily News Publishing Co., Ltd.; Director of Wakabayashi FX Associates; member of the Japanese Technical Analysts Association; Editor-in-Chief of Investment Daily α.
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