Forex 1/5: buy USD/JPY, sell EUR/USD, sell GBP/USD, sell AUD/USD, buy EUR/JPY, buy GBP/JPY, buy AUD/JPY

17:00– NY close		2023/1/5
	OPEN	LAST	CHANGE
USD/JPY	132.48	133.44	△ 96
EUR/USD	1.0606	1.0520	▲ 86
GBP/USD	1.2009	1.1908	▲ 101
AUD/USD	0.6809	0.6750	▲ 59
EUR/JPY	140.51	140.40	▲ 11
GBP/JPY	159.06	158.90	▲ 16
AUD/JPY	90.23	90.09	▲ 14

■Position changes, signals - January 5 (Thu)

・Tokyo morning due to the previous day’s rebound: yen strengthens, dollar, pound, and commodity currencies weaken. As European session approaches, yen strengthens, dollar strengthens, commodity currencies weaken. From New York to London fix, yen weak across the board, dollar strengthens. NY close: dollar strength, commodity currencies weakness.

・Balance for USD/JPY changed: euro buying 1.0603 canceled (initial sale 1.0681), pound selling 1.2007, aussie selling 0.6781, shifting to an overnight position.

・Overall market leaning toward dollar buying. Yen depreciation, euro depreciation, dollar strength, commodity currencies weakness. For two consecutive days, yen short positions lead in NY.

■Key Economic Indicators (U.S. focus), rate decisions, events, news, etc.

・China December Caixin services PMI 48.0 (previous 46.7)

・IMF's Gopinath urges the Fed to proceed with rate hikes = FT

・U.S. December Non-Manufacturing PMI 44.7 (previous 44.6)

・U.S. initial jobless claims 204,000 (previous 225,000 → 223,000)

・December ADP national employment report +235k (previous +127k → +182k)▼

・U.S. November Trade Balance −$61.5B (previous −$78.2B → −$77.8B)

・Braag, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

“Support for moving up the timing of rate hikes”

“Data are guiding the decision for 25bp or 50bp rate hike at the next meeting”

（If there is a change in the 日中 balance and new positions are taken, they will be verified at NY close and moved to overnight positions, while the initial positions will be closed. If new positions in the day balance are canceled mid-way, the initial positions remain. Therefore, changes in the day balance resulting in new positions will be a hedge against the initial position. If cancelled, losses/gains will occur.)

■ USD/JPY

1/3 − BUY @ 130.94

12/29 − SELL @ 133.81

12/22 − BUY @ 132.15

12/20 − SELL @ 136.00

12/15 − BUY @ 135.44

(LAST @ 133.44)

Low support 132.59, retracement resume confirmation point 133.15

■ EUR/USD

1/2 − SELL @ 1.0681

12/29 − BUY @ 1.0649

12/28 − SELL @ 1.0633

12/26 − BUY @ 1.0616

12/21 − SELL @ 1.0608

(LAST @ 1.0520)

Downward resume confirmation point 1.0560, rebound resistance 1.0587

■ GBP/USD

1/5 − SELL @ 1.2007

1/4 − BUY @ 1.2015

1/3 − SELL @ 1.2053

12/30 − BUY @ 1.2055

12/27 − SELL @ 1.2060

(LAST @ 1.1908)

Downward resume confirmation point 1.1952, retracement resistance 1.1999

■ AUD/USD

1/5 − SELL @ 0.6781

1/4 − BUY @ 0.6780

1/3 − SELL @ 0.6801

12/29 − BUY @ 0.6770

12/28 − SELL @ 0.6739

(LAST @ 0.6750)

Downward resume confirmation point 0.6744, retracement resistance 0.6779

■ EUR/JPY

1/4 − BUY @ 139.02

12/29 − SELL @ 142.29

12/23 − BUY @ 140.40

12/16 − SELL @ 145.21

12/14 − BUY @ 144.65

(LAST @ 140.40)

Low support 140.50, retracement resume confirmation point 140.82

■ GBP/JPY

1/4 − BUY @ 157.24

12/29 − SELL @ 161.19

12/23 − BUY @ 159.71

12/13 − SELL @ 168.00

12/15 − BUY @ 167.86

(LAST @ 158.90)

Low support 157.91, retracement resume confirmation point 158.78

■ AUD/JPY

1/4 − BUY @ 88.60

12/29 − SELL @ 90.26

12/23 − BUY @ 88.82

12/15 − SELL @ 92.63

12/07 − BUY @ 91.93

(LAST @ 90.09)

Low support 90.26, retracement resume confirmation point 90.53