Central Plains Legend Report (U.S. Long-Term Interest Rates) Special Issue January 6, 2023

＜Summary＞

① The U.S. long-term interest rate hit a 39-month cycle low in March 2020.

② The 39-month cycle is comprised of three 13-month cycles (recently extended to a 15.5-month cycle), with the first 15.5-month cycle bottom in August 2021, and the second 15.5-month cycle bottom around mid-November 2022 by ±2.5 months, i.e., from early September 2022 to early March 2023. The bottom may have occurred around December 7 at 3.404%. The peak in rates occurred on October 21 at 4.35%.

③ If the second 15.5-month cycle bottomed on December 7, then the third 15.5-month cycle would bottom out around March 2024 ±2.5 months, i.e., from January 2024 to June 2024. If the third 15.5-month cycle is bullish, the rate peak would be around November 2023; if bearish or neutral, the peak would occur before August 2023.

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＊ This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a buy/sell recommendation.