Clantek Market Analysis 2023.1.4 - Navi+ - GogoJungle | Auto Trading - Market Analysis

January 4, 2023

【Last Week's Market Trends】

As the results of the U.S. indicator “Continuing claims for unemployment insurance for the previous week” on the 29th surpassed expectations, expectations for a slower pace of rate hikes rose again, stocks (the three major U.S. indices) advanced, and the dollar declined.

Nevertheless, last week, amid year-end light trading, both the currency and stock markets lacked momentum and did not move significantly.

【This Week's Market Outlook】

This week, key U.S. indicators will be released: December ISM Manufacturing PMI on the 4th, and the FOMC minutes. On the 5th, ADP employment data, and the reports on continuing claims and initial claims for the previous week will be released. On the 6th, December unemployment rate, December average hourly earnings, and the December Non-Manufacturing PMI will be released in succession.

Additionally, on the 6th, the EU's December Consumer Price Index will also be released, suggesting that markets could move sharply early in the new year.

Regarding the currency market, since the Bank of Japan's surprise (expansion of the trading range for long-term interest rates) last year, the major cross-yen pairs such as USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, and AUD/JPY have declined significantly, and the market remains heavy on the upside.

Indeed, a short-cross strategy for the cross-yen pairs seems favorable for a while. In particular, as mentioned in last week's market analysis, I would like to primarily short GBP/JPY among the cross-yen pairs.

Regarding the stock market, U.S. stocks (the three major indices) are also hovering at high levels, and while the outlook is for a short perspective, since the BOJ surprise, the Nikkei Stock Average has been more noticeably declining. This impact is expected to continue, so a short position in the Nikkei may be a good target for a while.

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