In 2018, 1300 pips were earned! "MorningShot USDJPY M5"
Gained +1500 pips in 9 months of forward testing!
Morning Shot USDJPY M5: A multi-position morning scalping EA
【Morning Shot USDJPY M5 Overview】
Currency pair: [USD/JPY]
Trading style: [Scalping]
Maximum number of positions: 5
Timeframe used: M5
Maximum stop loss: 50
Take Profit 10 and others: Trailing Stop
An EA that enters between 3:30 and 6:00 JST and takes profit with a trailing stop.
Designed with a maximum stop loss of 50 pips and shallow drawdown, a short-term scalping EA.
【Forward Analysis】
Operated since June 2017, gaining +1593 pips in 9 months.
Since 2018, it's been positive every month and performing well!
Win rate during the period is 83.4%, which is good for an EA with five positions.
【Trade Example】
Blue arrow: SELL
Red arrow: BUY
Enters in the early morning in JST, and closes with trailing stop if the direction aligns.
Maximum stop loss is -50 pips, and it can get hit, of course.
With up to 5 positions × -50 pips, a large lot size means bigger losses per trade, but since the win rate is about 80%,
losses are infrequent.
【Backtest Analysis】
We conducted a 10-year backtest starting from 2008
2008.01.01-2017.12.31
Spread 0.8 pips
0.1 lot fixed
Net profit +850,000 yen
Maximum drawdown -186,000 yen
Win rate 79.4%
That is all.
The period 2011-2013 shows poorer performance, almost flat.
Maximum drawdown for 0.1 lot reached up to around 150,000 yen during that period.
Looking at other years,drawdown averages about -50,000 yen on average.
Looking monthly, December's results are often not good. December might be a good candidate to stop operations.
【Maximum Drawdown and Expected Profit】
In a 10-year backtest, the maximum drawdown was 156,000 yen, so
For an account of 1,000,000 yen, operating at 0.2 lots (× up to 5 positions) is recommended.
The expected average profit in that case is +170,000 yen.
The default parameter for MorningShotUSDJPY is 0.5 lots,
and it is a recommended lot per 1,000,000 yen account adjusted from drawdowns in recent years.
How long of a backtest period to reference when determining maximum drawdown value is subjective, but
If you want to be aggressive, 0.5 is recommended; if you want to be safe, around 0.2 is recommended.
With 0.5 lots per 1,000,000 yen, the expected annual return is +40%,
With 0.2 lots, +17%.
【Good compatibility with compounding feature!】
The win rate is close to 80%, so using compounding is more efficient.
Compounded results for the most recent five years are here
With Risk 10 setting, relative drawdown is 15%!
1,000,000 yen ⇒3,880,000 yen！（＋288％）
In good years, you might rapidly build your assets?!
