Dollar/Yen outlook

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■ Futures information magazine "Ito-ryu Elliott Count"
■ Published December 14, 2022
■ Publisher: Plaza Investment Advisory Office Co., Ltd. President & Representative Director: Hidehiro Ito
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We will send weekly outlook for USD/JPY



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Features of the analysis

Analysis based on unique Elliott Wave theory.
Wave turns are determined by two-stage ups and downs on monthly, weekly, and daily charts
Monthly turns: in an uptrend, a two-stage decline three times marks the top.
In a downtrend, a two-stage rise marks the bottom.
Opposite two-stage rise and three declines indicate a turn.

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Daily count from 151.94

151.94～133.65
133.65～137.96 daily two-stage rise


Until the two-stage rise on the daily chart occurs two more times
the yen will remain strong.




From 102.59 weekly count

102.59～151.94 1
151.94～133.65 2 ← weekly two-stage decline

Within the rise from 102.59～151.94
there is no weekly two-stage decline
From 151.94, the first weekly two-stage decline appeared at
151.94～133.65.
If bullish, there could be two more new highs
If bearish, from 151.94 the weekly two-stage rise would occur three more times, keeping the yen strong.
But if the view is bearish, from 151.94 the weekly two-stage rise would need three more occurrences for a continued yen appreciation.
If the monthly turns back to yen depreciation,
and a two-stage decline is aimed,
the weekly two-stage rise would need to occur three times.
There is a view that the yen may strengthen until then.
If the monthly turns back toward yen depreciation,
and moving toward two-stage declines is expected,
we must consider that the weekly two-stage rise would be required three times.



From 75.59 monthly count

75.59～84.18 1
84.18～77.14　　2← monthly two-stage decline
77.14～125.85 3
125.85～99.09 4a← monthly two-stage decline
99.09～118.66 4b
118.66～101.23 4c
101.23～111.71 4d
111.71～102.59　4e
102.59～151.94 5

The monthly chart is counted from the 75.59 bottom.
Within the rise from 75.59～125.85, there are two monthly two-stage declines
84.18～77.14 and 125.85～99.09
Wave 4 is a long consolidation.
Between 102.59 and 151.94 there is no two-stage decline,
so if we count a monthly two-stage decline from the top,
that would mark a top.



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Nikkei major wave patterns
Major trend is judged by the monthly and weekly two-stage declines and rises.

From the China Virus shock,
the mid-term count after 16358 is as follows
Count indicated by weekly two-stage decline.

Count from 16358

16358～23725 1
23725～22948 2← weekly two-stage decline
22948～28979 3
28979～27629　4a
27629～30714 4b
30714～26954 4c← weekly two-stage decline
26954～30795 4d
30795～24681 4e← weekly two-stage decline

This one turns at weekly two-stage decline three times.

Weekly count after 30795

30795～27293
27293～29960← weekly two-stage rise
29960～24681


Two-stage rise occurs twice.
Assuming 30795 is not breached,
one more rise is needed to form a bottom.


Monthly two-stage decline and rise will be used to outline the big picture.

Count from 6830 in the futures chart

6830～11390 1
11390～7800 2← monthly two-stage decline
7800～16340 3
16340～13850 4← monthly two-stage decline
13850～20950 5
20950～14790 6← monthly two-stage decline
14790～24480 7
24480～15860 8← monthly two-stage decline
15860～30720 9
30720～24681 10← monthly two-stage decline


Count from 6994


6994～11408 1
11408～8135 2← monthly two-stage decline
8135～20952 3
20952～14864 4← monthly two-stage decline
14864～24448 5
24448～16358 6← monthly two-stage decline
16358～30714 7
30714～26954　8← monthly two-stage decline
26954～30795 9
30795～24681 10← monthly two-stage decline

Monthly two-stage decline does not occur 3 times,
and turns at 5th time
The two-stage declines are shown where they occurred.



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NY Wave Analysis:

NY yearly count

6469～18351 1
18351～15370 2
15370～26951 3
26951～21712 4
21712～36952 5

NY monthly count


18213～29199 1
29199～26143 2
26143～35631 3
35631～33613 4a
33613～36565 4b
36565～34006 4c


Count from 36952

36952～32272 1
32272～35492 2a
35492～30635 2ba
30635～33272 2bb
33272～29653 2bb
29653～34281 2ca
34281～28660 2cb
28660～33071 2cc1
33071～31727 2cc2
31727～33987 2cc3
33987～33239 2cc4
33239～34595 2cc5

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For reference, the analysis time is 2022/12/14/5:00



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Publisher Plaza Investment Advisory Office Co., Ltd.
Representative: 045-520-3658 (Weekdays 8:00-18:00)
Website
https://plaza110.com/
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