Is the emergence of the trend in April?
While commuting, I looked up and saw cherry blossoms blooming. For those starting a new life in the new fiscal year, those taking on new challenges, and those organizing memories from last year, you are likely spending each day with a variety of feelings.
Now, speaking of cryptocurrency, last year4月 the enforcement of the Revised Payment Services Act rapidly increased awareness of cryptocurrency investment in Japan. Since then1 year has passed. Looking back, it was a short yet dense1 year, but how will the market behave in April?
■ The points for buying and selling are getting closer
On a daily chart,BTC,2月半ばから3月半ばまで a solid double top was formed, after which the mid-term trend turned and declined. Watching the upper bound of the long-term downtrend channel that has persisted since last year, the current flow continues. There should be fairly large sell orders at this line, so insolvency filings by an exchange could be closing out positions.
That said, it’s not necessarily the case that the decline will continue indefinitely. Of the technical indicators that attract attention, drawing the200-day moving average,BTC/JPY charts show it is being heavily watched. This seems to be a buying point, and in fact1 year or soBTChas not closed below the200-day moving average.
Therefore, the current BTC market, squeezed between the downtrend channel and the200-day moving average, seems to be searching for its next direction. If it leans toward one side, the next long-term trend may emerge. If it tilts toward selling, it could fall to around50 ten thousand yen; if it moves toward buying, it may rise temporarily to around120 ten thousand yen.
Let’s look forward to April.
■ Key technicals that draw attention in trading
Day after day, BTC markets show active trading influenced by technical indicators, and I would like to introduce a few that I often use.
First, how to read charts. I look at the weekly, daily,4hourly,1hourly,5minute intervals, always analyzing trends from the longer timeframes first. On the weekly chart, I simply note whether it is bullish or bearish, how many weeks it has continued, and on the shorter timeframes I focus on trendlines, highs and lows, and the formations described later. In particular, the more trendlines, highs, and lows you draw from salient points, the more you can understand what participants are currently focusing on.
Next, formation analysis. Double tops, triple tops, head and shoulders, inverse head and shoulders, and triangular formations pair well with BTC markets.
Finally, indicators. This is entirely up to your preference, but I always use Bollinger Bands and the200-day moving average.
However, regarding technical indicators, there are individual styles and timing considerations in the market, so I do not recommend strictly patterning everything. Treat them as a reference only.
■ Major companies to watch for real demand
Now, I believe the factors that could support buying this year are real demand. While regulations are being drafted, creating a consumer protection framework is important, but the shape of possible regulations depends on whether cryptocurrencies should be protected as assets or as payment methods. Therefore, I expect cryptocurrency coverage and attention this year to turn toward real-use transactions.
For reference, here are a few examples of Japanese companies participating in real-demand transactions and the platforms they offer.
・Bic Camera — settlements for products, etc.
・Cryptocurrency exchanges such as BitFlyer — trading and overseas remittance
・Recruit — settlement for services
・Mercari — settlement for resale
・LINE— exchange and settlement (prospective)
There are many other similar companies, and as you can see, IT companies are numerous and globally active, often forming alliances. The clear benefit is that they can quickly capture areas like international remittance and cross-border payments, which have historically been costly for financial institutions. In contrast, department stores and credit-card-related companies that share the same banking ecosystem have avoided entry, implying cannibalization concerns.
With this group of domestic and international firms, new services are likely to launch after April, which could be bullish for cryptocurrency. Alongside regulations, we should also look to headline news from the companies above.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
【Author】
Kawata Saiou(Kawada Saiō)
Treasury Market Division, Trading Department, Traders Securities
Born in Geneva, Switzerland. A graduate of Keio University.
Experience traveling the world lends concrete, experience-based fan mentality analysis that is persuasive.
Utilizing behavioral economics learned in college, I analytically study psychological biases of market participants and apply them to trading.
Hobby is shogi; a top amateur dancer who uses midgame maneuvers to read the next move in the market as well.
“The masses are always wrong” is my creed.
【Disclaimer】
The Bitcoin market information and other content provided on this site reflect the author’s personal views and are not guaranteed to be accurate or safe by the author, Traders Securities Co., Ltd., or our company. Moreover, such information is intended to be a reference and does not constitute a recommendation of specific investment actions or management methods regarding cryptocurrencies. Please make your own final investment decisions. Any gains or losses from investments belong to investors. We, the author, Traders Securities Co., Ltd., and our company, shall not bear responsibility for any damages arising from relying on this information.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
