HasbitFlyer Lightning FX finally settled down? An abnormal market implies abnormal risks.
Hello everyone, this is bitFlyer! It has been a year and a half since surviving with BTCFX@xi10jun1.
In the first half of last week, Bitcoin prices rebounded strongly following comments from President Carne, but now they have fallen again due to a warning from the Financial Services Agency to Binance.
With such statements by prominent figures and regulatory information moving the market, we also need to consider the quality of the funds entering the market.
※ This column is designed so that half of it can be read for free. Of course, it would be greatly励み if you read up to the paid portion (updated weekly, 400 yen per month, so about 80–100 yen per column), and I’d be happy if you subscribe as a donation-like support!
This Week’s Performance (March 16, 2018 to March 22, 2018)
First, as always, the performance. I’ll announce the changes first.
- Last week (through March 15, 2018) assets: 62,394 yen
- This week (through March 22, 2018) assets: 62,467 yen
- Change: +73 yen
On last Saturday, a new SFD system was introduced at bitFlyer Lightning FX (reference →【Important】Notice on partial changes to the “SFD”) so I watched the situation for a while.
So far, there are no trading methods that exploit loopholes in the system, nor abnormal price movements on the charts.
Therefore, this time I will write about trading in a market where the system has settled down.
Should you trade in abnormal markets? Or is it better not to?
This abnormal market doesn’t just refer to volatility like sudden price rises or drops.
As in the case of bitFlyer’s Lightning FX, abnormal markets can form by exploiting holes in the system or rules.
When discussing whether to trade by exploiting these holes or to refrain, my personal stance is to refrain.
The reason is that trading in abnormal markets involves abnormal levels of risk to begin with.
Sure, you might make money. But the time you can profit in such abnormal markets is short, and I don’t feel the need to take risks for such a fleeting gain.
First, survive, right? Surviving the market is the top priority over simply beating it.
Even if you’re accustomed to high-volatility markets like Bitcoin FX, deliberately taking abnormal risks in an abnormal situation drifts your trading style away from prudent behavior.
If you repeatedly engage in such deviant behavior, it’s clear you will incur unexpected losses in the future.
Free summary: Strictly adhere to the rules
Still, many people who trade in abnormal situations are those who are past the beginner stage or are more experienced.
If you suffer once in such a market (I also messed up USD/JPY once in the past), a profit can become a bad memory that reinforces risky behavior, making you more likely to take risks in future abnormal situations.
Let’s reinforce rule adherence once again.
So, for this paid column, I will discuss the future outlook.
Endnote Corner 1: Latest information on taxes! Updated February 9, 2018!
The National Tax Agency site has updated the latest legal interpretations regarding Bitcoin.
Here it is →No.1524 Tax on profits derived from using Bitcoin｜Income Tax｜National Tax Agency
Added December 1, 2017: A document about income calculation methods was posted on the National Tax Agency site.
Here it is →Regarding methods for calculating income from virtual currencies (pdf)｜National Tax Agency
※ Please note that laws and tax interpretations may change, which could affect filing and payment methods. Before filing, be sure to check with your local tax office or a tax professional.
Added February 9, 2018: Services for calculating cryptocurrency taxes are appearing in various places. BitFlyer released that using a service called CRYPTACT can calculate profits from transaction histories.
BitFlyer release here →“Trading Report” renewal and information about taxes on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies (pdf)
CRYPTACT here →https://tax.cryptact.com/
CRYPTACT is free to use and supports 15 exchanges (domestic: bitFlyer, Zaif, bitbank, coincheck, GMO Coin; international: binance, bitfinex, bittrex, changelly, CoinExchange, cryptopia, HitBTC, kraken, poloniex, Quoine) and 1,680 types of cryptocurrencies, allowing calculation of cryptocurrency income across multiple companies.
However, as noted in BitFlyer’s release, the result of service usage for tax filing is not the responsibility of any exchange operator, Cryptact, EY Tax Corporation, or myself. Filing taxes is the user’s responsibility.
Endnote Corner 2: In Planning
I’ve been thinking of writing about new cryptocurrency-related news and information, but I haven’t come up with anything yet. I’ll post it here as soon as I decide on a plan!
※ The free portion ends here. The rest contains detailed analysis and future outlook, so it is paid content. If you want to read more, of course, you can subscribe as a donation; I would be very encouraged. Thank you for your continued support!
