Grunwald method × breakout logic to pursue profits "Phoenix for EURUSD"

Forward operation for over 1 year, achieving an annual return of +26%

Phoenix for EURUSD: Building funds steadily through lot management

【Phoenix for EURUSD Overview】

Currency pair: [EUR/USD]

Trading style: [Day trading][Swing trading]

Maximum number of positions: 1

Time frame used: M5

Maximum stop loss: varies with chart

Take profit: varies with chart

The main feature is that even with a maximum holding position of 1,

you increase the lot size using a betting system called the Granville Method.

Unlike simple averaging down, entries are made using a breakout method,

so you can capture large profits when the breakout is strong.

However, although entries are made via the Granville Method, the overall result is not simply positive; that is the complex aspect of this EA.

【Forward Analysis】

In forward operation for 1 year and 2 months, +130 pips gained,

the profit amount is +260,000 yen.

【Trade Example】

Entries start from 0.1 lot using the break logic, and if a trade loses, you increase the lot size and continue trading.

A breakout with 0.6 lots is successful and the series is reset, thereafter the size goes back to 0.1 lot.

Because it uses breakout methods, it is different from Martingale entries that only buy or sell averaging.

Additionally, take profit and stop loss levels are not fixed and are determined according to the market, so ultimately winning trades may not fully offset earlier losses.

However, when breakouts extend significantly, there are cases of large gains, so ultimately profits remain.

【Pay attention to maximum drawdown】

There are results from two official backtests: a 2-year backtest and a 13-year backtest from 2005 to 2017.

In the most recent two years, the maximum drawdown was below $3,000, but

the 12-year backtest showed a maximum drawdown of $7,000.

（2015-2016 Backtest）

（2005－2016 Backtest）

Normally, for a 1,000,000 yen account, initial lot 0.1 is fine, but if the maximum drawdown exceeds $3,000,

there is a risk that drawdown could expand up to $7,000 based on past backtests.

In addition to the 1,000,000 yen, having an extra roughly 1,000,000 yen as a reserve would be prudent.

【About Expected Profit】

From the 12-year backtest, the expected annual average profit for a 1,000,000 yen account is +3,565 USD

From the most recent 2-year backtest, the expected annual average profit is +4,099 USD.

Looking at the forward history for one year, the profit is +260,000 yen, which shows

it is an EA that can aim for an annual return of 20–30%!

You must be mindful of the maximum drawdown, but in terms of gradually increasing profits, this is a rare and sophisticated EA!