Kabuki Takaaki 『Weekly Gold Market Outlook』 October 31, 2022 issue
Takashi Kabutoki, the President and CEO of Investment Daily Co., Ltd., and a master of cycle analysis, writes this weekly report on gold price outlook.
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This week the FOMC is meeting. While a further 75 basis points rate hike is expected, as noted last week, the key point will be whether the December meeting will discuss whether to reduce the pace of hikes. The market has already priced in a slower pace for December from last week, and in fact the dollar has turned lower. Meanwhile, gold and stocks have rebounded. It can be said that their movements largely reflect expectations for a slower pace at the December meeting. If that proves true, the market may move contrary to last week’s pattern, with the dollar rallying again and gold falling. However, once this cycle completes, the dollar could fall again and gold could rebound. On the other hand, if the December decision continues the current pace of rate hikes, or slows the pace, and this is not debated as “still early,” the dollar would spike sharply and gold would fall. At this stage, I do not see this scenario materializing.
What about interest rates? After rising to 4.34% on October 21, the 10-year yield has entered a correction, but a confirmed trend reversal has not yet been established. If the upcoming employment statistics and CPI, among other economic indicators, do not clearly indicate a recession, rates are likely to decline. In the near term, even if there is a rebound, 4.2% is a ceiling; if it then falls below 3.8%, that would be a factor supporting a rise in the gold market.
For more, please view the PDF file.
【Takashi Kabutoki — Profile】
Graduated from Kwansei Gakuin University, Faculty of Economics. In 1995 he partnered with the world-renowned U.S. market analyst Raymond Merriman to publish Japan’s first market cycle and astrology reports. He is well-known for cycle and astrology-based market analysis. President and CEO of Investment Daily Co., Ltd.; President and CEO of Toushi Nichiho Publishing Co., Ltd.; Director of Wakabayashi FX Associates; Member of the Japan Technical Analysts Association; Editor-in-Chief of Toushi Nichiho Alpha.
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