Promote self-regulation from the online/Internet industry to the cryptocurrency industry
2Month7Day it finally reached rock bottom and expectations were that the trend would turn,BTCbut unable to clear key technical points, selling intensified. Conversely, with a flurry of technical down signals, it entered a downtrend.
■ Re-challenging lows due to technical factors
First, an explanation from a long-term perspective.
Looking at BTC on a daily chart,BTCa solid double top is formed in the high price area. Also, the right shoulder is overlapped by the upper bound of a decline channel since last year, so it serves as a clean sign of decline. Therefore,BTC's medium- to long-term outlook has shifted downward, and for a while it is likely to drift down toward2/7's level of65万 yen (units) targets, continuing to move slowly downward.
■ Pressure from prohibiting Google ad campaigns accelerates selling
Now, from these technical factors,BTCentered a downtrend, and a factor that accelerated this selling3/14was Google's report banning cryptocurrency-related ads. This is part of Google'sadwords (advertising service)2018year6month rule revision to stop displaying any advertisements that could lead speculative trading or fraud in any financial transactions, not just cryptocurrencies.
When Internet companies ban ads or change search algorithms, in our modern world where everything is connected to the Internet, it can have an impact equal to ordering a central authority to halt operations. In fact, internet-based regulations may have a larger effect than public regulatory bodies.
As a result, since exchanges and other services would struggle to attract investors and payment partners, demand for currency would fall, leading to a drop.
However, the market largely ignores this, and there are exceptions to this ad rule change. If a company clears conditions such as obtaining authorization from a financial services authority, ads can still be placed. Therefore, for operators in Japan who hold authorization from the Financial Services Agency, there is no damage at all; rather, competition decreases and ad revenue improves. In short, this is not negative for the entire cryptocurrency industry but negative for operators who do not follow the rules and positive for those who do. The market tends to ignore adverse information, but in the long run I believe this is a positive factor.
has stopped ads andFacebook has similarly paused ads, not to destroy the cryptocurrency industry (in fact, they are likely to participate more actively in the future). Their intention is to take charge of the rules for cryptocurrency finance themselves as a societal infrastructure, rather than leaving it to the government. This is, in my view, a move toward rulemaking without centralization. It is a major step forward for cryptocurrencies.
■ Dominance seems to favor BTCBTC
Nevertheless, the downtrend remains a downtrend, so it will take time to recover. In the meantime, here is a profitable trading idea.
When regulation headlines appear,BTCmarkets tend to become bearish, but in reality regulation helps establish BTC as a base currency, which is positive.ICOtype-wide restrictions hurt altcoins with low credibility and low recognition, but forBTCthey gain official acknowledgment from public institutions, which is advantageous. This increases BTC's prominence due to regulation. Supporting this,BTCdominance (market share) is showing signs of recovery.
With this in mind, now it is more advantageous to trade BTC against altcoins by buying BTC and selling altcoins rather than trading BTC/JPY. This kind of shift in thinking allows you to respond to sudden news, so please try to keep this in mind going forward.
■ How far can the near-term decline go
is experiencing strong selling pressure and likely to continue declining for a while, but the author expects the downside target to be near the January low of65万 yen, with the 50-week moving average around72万 yen as the level where it may bottom out.
In moments like this, calmness is essential.
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【Author】
Kawada Saiou(Kawada Saiou
Traders Securities Market Division, Dealing Section
Born in Geneva, Switzerland. Graduated from Keio University.
His real-world experience from traveling the world gives his fan mindset analysis powerful credibility.
Utilizing behavioral economics learned in school, he analytically studies traders' psychological biases and applies them to trading.
His hobby is Shogi; he holds a high amateur rank. The strategic exchanges in the midgame also help him read the next move in the market.
"The crowd is always wrong" is his creed.
【Disclaimer】
The Bitcoin price information and other content provided on this site reflect the author’s personal views and are not guaranteed by the author, Traders Securities Co., Ltd., or our company as to accuracy or safety. The information is intended to be a reference and does not explicitly recommend any specific investment actions or strategies regarding cryptocurrencies. Please make your own final investment decisions.
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