Katariki Takashi 「Weekly Gold Market Outlook」 September 26, 2022 issue

This is the Gold Market Outlook report authored weekly by Takashi Kabutoki, the President and Representative Director of Investment Daily Co., Ltd., a renowned cycle analysis expert.

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Last week, the New York gold price (near-month) closed at $1,645.30, down $27.50 from the previous week, marking its lowest level since March 2020, for the first time in two and a half years. Following the CPI shock of the previous week, the FOMC decision last week to raise rates sharply drove interest rates up, becoming a factor in the gold price decline.

At the FOMC meetings held on the 20th and 21st, a 0.75% policy rate hike was decided, continuing the large rate hikes for three consecutive meetings. Initially, the market was relieved that it was not a 1% increase, and the dollar briefly weakened, leading to buying of gold, euros, and yen. However, with the expectation that further steep hikes would continue at the November meeting, the dollar regained strength, and the dollar index approached 112, the highest since June 2002. The euro/dollar exchange rate also hit the 0.96 area, the lowest since June 2002.

In an environment of a strong dollar and higher interest rates, the gold market could not withstand the pressure and accelerated its decline again, continuing from last month. In simple terms, the gold market is showing clear technical weakness. After breaking below key supports around the $1,670 level in March last year, and August last year, and July this year, the technical pattern now resembles the movement seen in April 2013.

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【Takashi Kabutoki — Profile】

Graduated from Kwansei Gakuin University, Faculty of Economics. In 1995, partnered with the world-renowned U.S. market analyst Raymond Meriman to issue the domestic first market cycle and astrology report. He is well-regarded for his analysis using cycles and astrology. President and Representative Director of Investment Daily Co., Ltd.; President and Representative Director of Investment Daily Publishing Co., Ltd.; Director of Wakabayashi FX Associates, Ltd.; Member of the Japanese Technical Analysts Association; Editor-in-Chief of Investment Daily Alpha.

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