Next week's 5 stocks
(3608) TSI Holdings
From Shikiho: Industry - Textile products.
【Features】Major apparel company. Tokyo Style and San-Ae (Sanei) merged management. Core brands include 'Nano Universe'. Structural reforms underway.
【Cost increases】Revenue recognition standards applied, lifting sales by 8.1 billion yen. Existing stores no longer have operating restrictions, customer visits recovering. However, e-commerce growth is slow. Profitability worsened by rising raw materials costs. Headquarters relocation costs heavy, leading to substantial operating decline. Impairment gains reduced. Dividend revival in progress.
【Tie-up】Invested in and allied with Sitala(Shital) clothing production platform; collaboration on production system digitalization and factory-direct sales pilots. Headquarters relocated in September, consolidating multiple sites to cut rents.
Announced July 13, 2022. For the fiscal year ending February 2023, forecasts: operating profit down 66.2% to 1.50 billion yen, ordinary profit down 58.9% to 2.40 billion yen from the previous year, i.e., a decline in revenue and profit.
In the COVID market, after a plunge, from the near-term low of 322 yen on March 13, 2020, formed a short-term uptrend (A) and rose to 511 yen by June 9, retraced to 511? wait—this seems inconsistent. The text describes a sequence: a rise to 511, then a shift to a short-term downtrend (B). In this downtrend (B), a bottom at 197 yen on November 30, then a rise to 376 yen on April 15, 2021, then down to 289 yen on May 27, later moved in a 278–389 yen box (C). The box breakout on September 8 at 408 yen, rising to 438 yen on September 16. With nearly a year of consolidation, buy on a pullback.
Buying Points
① 380–400 yen
② 350–380 yen
Take Profit
If (1) 450–470 yen
If it declines to (2), 420–450 yen
Stop Loss
None at present
(9900) Sagami Holdings
From Shikiho: Industry - Retail.
【Features】A noodle-dominant casual dining chain. Base in Nagoya. Anchor in-house Japanese meals and noodles, with franchise network. Became a holding company in October 2018
【Rapid recovery】Similar to previous year, added 10 stores and closed 7. Existing stores have completed shortening hours; with seasonal menu additions, Sagami-centered soba and Japanese cuisine see notable rebound in visitor numbers. April price increases and introduction of automatic cleaning devices and grain polishing machines help curb labor costs. Given mid-to-late infection impact and rising raw material costs, company is cautious in plans. Subsidies continue to be recorded.
【Re-growth】Over three years, 4 billion yen invested, funding Sagami expansion and direct-sale self-serve soba; expanding franchising. In-house factory products to improve quality and broaden product range.
Announced August 10, 2022. For the fiscal year ending March 2023, forecasts: operating profit up 148.4% to 300 million yen, ordinary profit down 85.9% to 320 million yen, i.e., revenue growth but profit declines in two consecutive years.
COVID market plunge, bottom at 904 yen on March 13, 2020, formed a short-term uptrend (A) with a strong rebound to 1,318 yen on March 27, then fell to 1,020 yen on April 6, rose to 1,321 yen on May 25, then faced a near-term double-top and declined to 1,122 yen by July 10, consolidating and hitting a low of 1,107 yen on July 31. Then a substantial rise to a high of 1,464 yen on September 23, after which a short-term downtrend (B) began. In this downtrend, a likely bottom at 971 yen on October 7, 2021, followed by a rebound to 1,084 yen on November 15, and a range-bound period through January 11, 2022 low of 1,013 yen, with a high of 1,260 yen on March 17, then 1,074 yen on April 25, forming a triangular consolidation (C). After this, breakout on July 7 at 1,088 yen to the upside as a buy signal.
Buying Points
① 1,180–1,210 yen
② 1,150–1,170 yen
Take Profit
① in the range 1,300–1,320 yen
② down to 1,270–1,300 yen
Stop Loss
None at present
(5388) Kunimine Industries
From Shikiho: Industry - Glass and Stone Products.
【Features】Largest producer of bentonite (special clay minerals). Main customers include automotive, construction machinery, and construction sectors. Expanding into overseas markets
【Turn to lower profit】Casting products' pass-through of higher imported raw material due to yen depreciation fails to keep up with price increases, profitability sharply worsened. Even promising high-margin recovery projects have passed peak and demand wanes. Pesticides are subject to customer inventory adjustments. In the latter half, bentonite price pass-through advances cause lower profits again. Exchange gains.
【Waste disposal】From FY2023, focus on low-level radioactive waste treatment orders. Launching a美容 clay pack using bentonite as a product for individuals, marketed as Niigata local specialty.
Announced September 16, 2022. For the fiscal year ending March 2023, forecasts: operating profit down 34.0% to 1.10 billion yen, ordinary profit down 21.6% to 1.50 billion yen, i.e., two consecutive years of revenue and profit decline.
In the COVID market drop, bottom at 753 yen on March 13, 2020, formed a rise trend (A), with a rebound to 1,098 yen on May 22, then a decline to 890 yen by July 10 forming a second bottom and entering a steep uptrend (B). Within this uptrend (B), the price rose significantly after December 8 to 1,341 yen on February 9, 2021 and 1,357 yen on March 19, making a double top, then a downtrend (C) formed. In this period, a temporary bottom at 914 yen on March 9, 2022, rebound to 1,045 yen on May 6, then a retreat to 804 yen on September 21 with a bottoming process. The company remains undervalued but is seen as a rebound buy considering the 753 yen level of March 13, 2020.
Buying Points
① 780–800 yen
② 750–770 yen
Take Profit
① If reached, 880–900 yen
② If it declines, 850–880 yen
Stop Loss
None at present
(5809) Tatsuta Electric Wire
From Shikiho: Industry - Nonferrous metals.
【Features】A mid-sized comprehensive wire manufacturer. Electronics materials include EMI shielding films as a main profit pillar. Developing components for medical devices
【Downside】EMI shielding films for mainstay products are affected by Chinese lockdowns and smartphone production stoppages in the first half, but expected to recover in the second half. Wires for equipment remain steady. However, higher copper costs delay infrastructure purchases. While passing through higher raw material costs, depreciation increases weigh on profits; early momentum is lacking. Operating income growth narrowed vs previous term.
【Electronic materials】High-heat EMI shielding films for automotive use are being prototyped for adoption. Exploring further investments in startups for new business creation.
Announced July 27, 2022. For the fiscal year ending March 2023, forecasts: operating profit up 10.9% to 3.20 billion yen, ordinary profit up 7.6% to 3.350 billion yen, i.e., revenue and profit growth expected.
In the COVID market plunge, bottom at 382 yen on March 17, 2020, formed a short-term uptrend (A) with a surge to 830 yen on January 14, 2021, then a decline to 604 yen on March 5 and 666 yen on March 22, followed by consolidation to 648 yen on April 5. This led to a short-term downtrend (B). In this trend, a double bottom formed around 450 yen on November 26, 2021, rising to 502 yen on January 5, 2022, then a high of 1 ? This portion is garbled but ends with turning bullish around 441–508 yen box pattern and breakout above downtrend (B), signaling a potential rise.
Buying Points
450–460 yen
Take Profit
500–510 yen
Stop Loss
If it closes below 440 yen, stop loss
(6482) Youshin Seiki
From Shikiho: Industry - Machinery.
【Features】World's leading in plastic injection molding part ejection robots; mainstay high-function machines with about 20% market share. Special order machines also offered
【Profit growth continues】Main ejector robots show resilience despite China lockdowns; as of end of June, orders on hand were 40 billion yen (up 15% YoY). Special-order machines at 3.3 billion yen (up 89%). For full year, pass-through of rising raw materials and transport costs continues to be absorbed, maintaining operating profit growth. Foreign exchange gains outside operating income. 50th anniversary dividend.
【Penetration】Mainstay ejector robots and other models continue to gain market share; headquarters and adjacent land acquired for expansion.
Announced August 3, 2022. For the fiscal year ending March 2023, forecasts: operating profit up 7.3% to 3.10 billion yen, ordinary profit up 0.5% to 3.10 billion yen, i.e., three straight years of revenue and profit growth.
In the COVID market plunge, bottom at 593 yen on April 6, 2020, formed an uptrend (A); crest near 1,026–1,037 yen in early 2021, then turned down into a downtrend (B). In this downtrend, a double bottom around late May and June 2021; then rose to 1,083–1,037? and peaked near 1,037? before consolidating. By 2022, the stock varied in a pattern and turned bullish again around July 7 with 1,088 yen as a buying signal.
Buying Points
② 680–700 yen
Take Profit
Stop Loss
