“Everything Becomes FX” The Weekly Trade You Can’t Tell Anyone Vol.027
This "Investment Navigator +" is a report delivered every Sunday by those who consider capital management with the theme "Everything becomes FX."
I would like to share money matters—not limited to FX markets—that I actually hold as weekly positions with a limited audience.
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▼ Table of Contents
―1. Recent Status
―2. Weekly Trades No One Is Allowed to Talk About
―3. Global Finance
―4. Positions for Next Week
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【PR】Turn FX losses into gains by using capital management
Trading techniques that emphasize "capital management," which is often neglected in FX.
You can trade without being swayed by win rates or methods.
▼1. Recent Status
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"Everything becomes FX" moves between domestic and overseas locations about half of each month. I’d like to share where I am now, what I’m looking at, and who I’ve been meeting and working with domestically.
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This week I’m in Tokyo. In my case, I try to concentrate on offline meetings that require face-to-face interactions, and I often move when there are no scheduled commitments.
However, recently it has become harder to move freely (in a good way—there’s work to do), so I’ve started fixing plans in advance and filling in tasks when I’m in a free window in that area.
Now, things like FX and cryptocurrencies tend to be seen as something you can “make money in a short period,” which makes them speculative and something to be cautious about when getting involved.
In particular, things that advertise “earn 300,000 yen per month with little capital” are typical examples. It’s dangerous to assume you can earn 300,000 yen per month when you don’t even know how much “little capital” is, and deciding that you will earn 300,000 yen per month is quite risky.
As a beginner, you may not understand how difficult it is to “earn 300,000 yen per month” (and you may rationalize it to become a yearly fortune), but earning 300,000 yen per month would occupy a certain percentage of your capital.
For example, with a dreamlike monthly return of 10% (which may be possible in the short term but is unrealistic long-term), you would still need capital of 3 million yen.
Whether 3 million yen is a small amount depends on what you consider true “investment,” but given that many people fall for this kind of information, it is certainly not a small amount (at least not for me).
With that in mind, it feels like “there are many mistakes,” but those who hype easy profits in FX or cryptocurrencies often engage in this kind of marketing without hesitation.
I’ve been in the markets for about eight years (I think I’m at least intermediate), and I still have losing trades frequently.
Still, if you steadily trade in a boring, unexciting way that anyone can see, you’ll eventually find that people around you have left and you are the one who remains in the market.
That said, from the perspective of people with decades of market history, I’m still a novice. I believe it’s important to continue facing the markets steadily.
This week: +217 pips. The win rate is still fairly high, which is a bit scary….
▼2. Weekly Trades No One Is Allowed to Talk About
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A “weekly trade” that uses full capital management in a portfolio of trend-following and counter-trend positions that no one talks about publicly.
Since the start of operations in 2012, there has been no yearly loss and total profits exceeding +30,000 pips.
What is the secret to profitability with a win rate of 48%? Here we present this week’s trade results.
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・This week’s results: +217 pips
・Total results: +33,916 pips (rounded)
【Weekly Trade Results】
・Win rate: 48.6%
・Average gain: +839.6 pips
・Average loss: -580.1 pips
・Largest win: +13,491 pips
・Largest loss: -2,932 pips
・PF: 1.37
・PR: 1.45
The "Weekly Trades No One Can Talk About" take positions with an edge from the 1-hour, daily, and weekly trends. However, its essence lies more in capital management than in trading itself.
This method’s win rate is 48%. It may feel like about 40% by "felt probability," so those who cannot endure unless the win rate is above 80% probably cannot practice it. Conversely, those who consider long-term profits may find it informative.
