Kagami Takakiyo? Wait, the Japanese text seems like a name. The content inside: 鏑木 高明 『週刊 金相場展望』 2022年9月5日号 translates to: Takaki Kagami? No, 鏑木 is "Kabuki"? Let me parse properly: - 鏑木 高明 is a Japanese name: "Takaaki Kabuki" or more commonly "Takaaki Ka
Takao Kabutogi, the President and CEO of Kabushiki Kaisha Investment Daily, a master of cycle analysis, writes a weekly report on gold price outlook.
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The August U.S. employment data released last week showed nonfarm payrolls up by 315,000 from the previous month. The pace of growth slowed from the previous month (526,000, revised), but slightly exceeded market expectations (Reuters) of a 300,000 gain. The unemployment rate rose by 0.2 percentage points to 3.7%. However, the June and July figures were revised downward, and the year-over-year wage growth also slowed.
Because of this, in some markets there is a perception that the labor market is stabilizing, and there are views that the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of its aggressive monetary tightening in the second half of the year. There is also a growing expectation that the rate hike size at the FOMC meeting on the 20th–21st of this month could be reduced to 50 basis points. Still, until we see the August CPI data released on the 13th, nothing can be said with certainty. The present statistics do not change the authorities’ view that monetary policy needs to become restraint over the next several months.
In fact, U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have been rising since August 2, and although last weekend saw a dip in yields due to a dearth of new data, the trend has not reversed. The chart pattern resembles a double top, but there is still room to test higher levels. Our outlook for the second half of the year is that the pace of rate hikes will slow, and we expect the rise in yields to lose momentum soon.
Please see the PDF for the continuation.
【Takao Kabutogi – Profile】
Graduated from Kwansei Gakuin University, Faculty of Economics. In 1995, he partnered with the globally renowned U.S. market analyst, Raymond Meriman, and issued Japan’s first market cycle and astrology reports. He is well regarded for cycle and astrology-based market analysis. President and CEO of Investment Daily, Inc.; CEO of Invest Daily Publishing Co., Ltd.; Director of Wakabayashi FX Associates; Member of the Japan Technical Analysts Association; Editor-in-chief of Investment Daily α.
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