MMA Weekly Report Nikkei Stock Average By Raymond Merriman Sep.5 2022

[Notice] We have received a message from Meriman stating, "I cannot set aside writing time on September 12 due to attending a conference. Therefore please refrain from issuing the report." Please understand.

1. Review

Last week the Nikkei 225 fell 990 points from the previous week, closing at 27,650. The week's high was 28,233 on Tuesday, August 30, and the week's low was 27,570 on Friday, September 2. Since the closing price fell below the weekly downside support line, the tone was bearish. Furthermore, this closing price also fell below the Weekly Trend Indicator Point (TIP) for the first time in nine weeks, so the trend has downgraded from a rising trend to a neutral state.

2. Cycles

As explained in my book "Forecast 2022," the Nikkei 225 has a long-term market cycle of 17 years.

Its starting point is October 28, 2008, at 6,994, and 2022 marks the 14th year since that starting point.

This cycle is divided into two 8.33-year segments, with the early stage ending at the “double bottom” formed by June 24, 2016 at 14,864 and February 12, 2016 at 14,865. From here, the latter half (the second 8.33-year cycle) has begun.

Moreover, this 8.33-year cycle is composed of two four-year cycles, and the bottom of the first-four-year cycle appeared at 16,358 on March 19, 2020. The current (second) four-year cycle, based on that low, is now entering its 30th month in September. If this cycle, like the first four-year cycle, is composed of three 16-month sub-cycles, then the first-16-month cycle would have bottomed at 26,954 on August 20 last year (August 20–23, ±3 trading days, a★★★ important change day). In fact, the market rebounded sharply from there, and on September 14 of that year (within the★★ important change-day area of September 15–16), it reached 30,795, a 31-year high.

Further details are available in the PDF.

＊ MMA Report is prepared from Mr. Meriman's unique perspective for information purposes and is not intended as a buy/sell recommendation.

＊ Please make the final investment decision at your own risk.

＊ Unauthorized duplication or distribution of our reports is a breach of contract. If such breach is detected, legal action may be taken. Even within your subscription period, we may terminate distribution. Thank you for your understanding and cooperation.