2018.2.26 FX-ON submission time 07:25 Dollar/Yen price movement forecast and scenario
FX Study: Reflecting on the previous USD/JPY price movement forecast
When you’re aiming for breakouts, you inevitably encounter “bear traps” or “fakeouts.” To counter these, various filters to avoid fakes are circulating, but frankly speaking, it’s impossible to completely avoid them. Rather than worrying about how to enter, sharpen the metric of how far the breakout can go, and set a consistent exit rule such as trailing stop at the target rate ○○, take profit at ○○, and cut losses at ○○. This helps you develop a trained eye for trade selection, making your trading performance easier to improve. Once you’ve decided on the exit rules, entry isn’t simply arbitrary. Once you can recognize trades with a favorable risk-reward balance, you can focus on judging situations with higher win probability and likelihood. That means, in terms of long-term timeframes, it’s about trend judgment, support and resistance levels, chart patterns, volume or tick volume, and technical indicators. As for the expected price range from breakouts, by reading the price movement scenarios on this site, you can roughly estimate where the price might go. If it breaks this price band, it could extend to ○○. Regarding the previous scenario, it took a back-and-forth between Scenario 1 and 2. The points where the rate movement slowed were generally on target.Previous USD/JPY Forecast (Click the image to open the article)
Previous USD/JPY Forecast USD/JPY 15-minute chart
Today's USD/JPY Forecast: Building a scenario for USD/JPY movement
To tell the truth, I created a video for today’s scenario. When I looked at the morning situation, it started a bit higher than that forecast.＜Posted 2018.2.26 07:20＞● Scenario 1
If the range of 106.950–107.150 breaks upward, it could rise to around 107.250–350, staying in range or pulling back. If it breaks higher from the range, it could rise to around 107.650–750. If it breaks below or pulls back from the range, it could fall to around 107.000–100. After rising to around 107.650–750, it may range or pull back again around that area. If it breaks above the range again, it could rise to around 107.850–950. If it falls below the range, it could drop to around 107.100–200. If it rises to around 107.850–950 and the upside momentum strengthens, it could reach around 108.000–108.100.
● Scenario 2
If the 106.950–107.150 range breaks downward, it may fall to around 106.850–700, staying in range or pulling back. If it breaks below, it could drop to around 106.600–550. If it breaks upward from the range or pulls back, it could rise to around 107.100–000. After falling to around 106.600–550, it may again range or pull back around that area. If it breaks below the range, it could fall to around 106.400–300. If it breaks above the range or pulls back, it could rise to around 106.700–600. If it falls to around 106.600–550 and the downside momentum strengthens, it could fall to around 106.200–100.
If the range of 106.950–107.150 breaks upward, it could rise to around 107.250–350, staying in range or pulling back. If it breaks higher from the range, it could rise to around 107.650–750. If it breaks below or pulls back from the range, it could fall to around 107.000–100. After rising to around 107.650–750, it may range or pull back again around that area. If it breaks above the range again, it could rise to around 107.850–950. If it falls below the range, it could drop to around 107.100–200. If it rises to around 107.850–950 and the upside momentum strengthens, it could reach around 108.000–108.100.
● Scenario 2
If the 106.950–107.150 range breaks downward, it may fall to around 106.850–700, staying in range or pulling back. If it breaks below, it could drop to around 106.600–550. If it breaks upward from the range or pulls back, it could rise to around 107.100–000. After falling to around 106.600–550, it may again range or pull back around that area. If it breaks below the range, it could fall to around 106.400–300. If it breaks above the range or pulls back, it could rise to around 106.700–600. If it falls to around 106.600–550 and the downside momentum strengthens, it could fall to around 106.200–100.
Forecasting USD/JPY in a video
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