MMA Weekly Report Nikkei Stock Average by Raymond Merriman Aug.29 2022

1. Review

Last week the Nikkei 225 averaged 28,641, down 289 points from the previous week. The week's high was on Monday the 22nd at 29,828. The week's low was on Wednesday the 24th at 28,282. Although the low fell below the weekly downside support line, the closing price was above it, which is a bullish trigger. Moreover, this closing price continued to exceed the Weekly Trend Indicator Point (TIP) for eight consecutive weeks, so the overall trend remains in a rising trend state.

2. Cycles

As explained in my book Forecast 2022, the Nikkei 225 has a long-term market cycle of 17 years.

Its starting point is 6,994 on October 28, 2008, and 2022 marks the 14th year from that starting point. This cycle is divided into two 8.33-year sub-cycles, with the first half ending at the “double bottom” of 14,864 on June 24, 2016 and 14,865 on February 12 of the same year. The second half (the 2nd 8.33-year cycle) has begun from there. Furthermore, this 8.33-year cycle consists of two four-year cycles, and the first four-year cycle bottom appeared at 16,358 on March 19, 2020. The current second four-year cycle, starting from that low, has entered its 30th month in September. If this cycle is composed, as with the first four-year cycle, of three 16-month sub-cycles, then the first 16-month cycle would bottom at 26,954 in August of last year—on August 20, 21, or 23 (±3 trading days,★★★ crucial change date)—from the starting point. In fact, the market then rebounded sharply, reaching 30,795 by September 14 of that year (within the area of the crucial change days of September 15–16, ±3 trading days), marking its highest level in 31 years.

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