2018.2.23 FX-ON post time 08:25 Forecast and scenarios for dollar/yen price movement
FX Study: Reviewing the previous USD/JPY price movement forecast
Whether it’s FX, stock investing, or cryptocurrency, it’s important to prepare before entering. Analyze market psychology to determine which holders—those currently long or those currently short—have less psychological margin. Use the results of that analysis to create price-movement scenarios like this. When doing so, I look at the rate and intuitively feel whether I want to go long or short. It’s a feeling. The site administrator is an ordinary person, so if this feeling makes me want to go long, I imagine the price is more likely to go down. If it makes me want to go short, I imagine the price is more likely to go up ( haha ). Typically, markets move in the opposite direction of what humans find alluring. From that perspective, you may find today’s scenario interesting to read. Regarding the main topic, last forecast, when it dropped below and then retraced, I was unsure whether the breakout was a range breakout or a flag pattern.It might have been a flag.
— kinchanbbh3 (@kinchanbbh3)February 22, 2018
I don’t like to be carried away, so I might wait for a break of support, or after the bearish candle is completed, observe the situation, and if volume doesn’t rise, I might short near the closing high.
After that, I think the price movement was roughly as imagined.There was a possibility of an upside breakout in Scenario 2, so I temporarily closed the short position at 107.439. There is no absolute thing, so I am aiming for it.
— kinchanbbh3 (@kinchanbbh3)February 22, 2018
Current thinkingpic.twitter.com/EEWLitMeKZ
Previous USD/JPY forecast (click image to go to article)
Previous USD/JPY forecast USD/JPY 15-minute chart
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Today's USD/JPY forecast: Constructing a price-movement scenario for USD/JPY
Whether it will break below 106.500. If it breaks, I feel there is a high possibility of entering a downward trend.＜Posted 2018.2.23 08:15＞
● Scenario 1
If it breaks out upward from the 106.600–800 range, it will rise to around 106.900–950, then range or consolidate. A breakout from the range upward would push to around 107.000–107.050. A break downward from the range or consolidation would drop to around 106.600–700. After rising to around 107.000–050, it would again range or consolidate in that vicinity. If it breaks upward from the range, it could rise to around 107.250–350. If it breaks downward from the range or consolidates, it could fall to around 106.750–850. If it rises to around 107.250–350 and the upside momentum strengthens, it could rise to around 107.550–650.
● Scenario 2
Available on the site
If it breaks out upward from the 106.600–800 range, it will rise to around 106.900–950, then range or consolidate. A breakout from the range upward would push to around 107.000–107.050. A break downward from the range or consolidation would drop to around 106.600–700. After rising to around 107.000–050, it would again range or consolidate in that vicinity. If it breaks upward from the range, it could rise to around 107.250–350. If it breaks downward from the range or consolidates, it could fall to around 106.750–850. If it rises to around 107.250–350 and the upside momentum strengthens, it could rise to around 107.550–650.
● Scenario 2
Available on the site
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