8/24 Nikkei 225 Options Analysis・Trade Strategy・Analysis Chart

We are conducting analysis based on Tokyo Stock Exchange disclosure data as of 8/23 (Tuesday).

① Futures trading trends (Nikkei 225 + Mini + TOPIX) [Sell]

② OP trends

Increase: Sell C29000, increase under P28250 → downward pressure increases

☆In the near term, the comfortable range remains 28500–29000, but the downside momentum strengthened today.

・Amro: Up 29500 to down 29000 or up 28500 to down 28000

・GS: Up 29250, down 28500

・CS: 29500 or below

・JPM: Up 29500, down 28500

・BNP: Up 29500, down 28250

・Germany: Up 28500 to down 27500

③ Overall commentary

With a predominantly bullish options flow, you can tell from the flow, and of course the VIX has jumped.

Today, focus more on support/resistance turning rather than flow. Around 28400 was the resistance line and is currently support. If we do not break here, there won’t be a large decline, so to push lower, we must first take this area out. If this level holds firmly, there is a possibility of another rise toward the top. In any case, before Jackson Hole, the high will not be exceeded, in my impression. The rebound target is around 28625–28750. If entering, wait to around 28500–2700 to short. Take partial profits at 28400, and ride the rest.

④ Chart analysis

For options, upward pressure is strong up to around 28500–29250, but below that is thin. In other words, the more it falls, the easier it falls.