MMA Weekly Report Nikkei Stock Average Index By Raymond Merriman Aug.22 2022

1. Review

The Nikkei Stock Average closed the week at 28,930, up 383 points from the previous week. The week's low was 28,623 on Monday, the 15th. The week's high was 29,222 on Wednesday, the 17th. Although the week's low fell below the weekly support line, it rebounded. Since the closing price exceeded the weekly resistance line, the underlying trend remains extremely bullish for the second consecutive week. Furthermore, this closing price also surpassed the Weekly Trend Indicator Point (TIP) for six weeks in a row, so the underlying trend remains in the “upward trend” state.

2. Cycles

As I explained in my book “Forecast 2022,” the Nikkei Stock Average has a long-term market cycle of 17 years. Its starting point is October 28, 2008 at 6,994, and 2022 marks the 14th year from that starting point.

This cycle is divided into two segments by an 8.33-year cycle, with the first half ending at the double bottom of June 24, 2016 at 14,864 and February 12, 2016 at 14,865. From here, the second half (the 2nd 8.33-year cycle) has begun.

Furthermore, this 8.33-year cycle is composed of two four-year cycles, and a bottom appeared at 16,358 on March 19, 2020. The current (second) four-year cycle, beginning from this low, has entered its 29th month in August. If this cycle is composed of three 16-month cycles, as with the first 16-month cycle, then the first 16-month cycle would have bottomed at August 20 of last year (August 20–23, ±3 trading days★★Important Change Date) at 26,954. In reality, the market rebounded sharply from here, and by September 14 of that year (within the Important Change Date area of September 15–16, ±3 trading days) it reached 30,795, a level not seen in 31 years.

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